AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$21.38
-0.81 (-3.65%)
▼
5d:
-23.37%
30d:
-9.29%
90d:
-29.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMRC is down 23.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMRC is down 23.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.73
46.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $21.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.56 to $26.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+103.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+103.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.56 -
$26.65
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMRC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 103.5% below Wall St target ($43.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.56 -
$26.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.30
Resistance Level
$28.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.75
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+103.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.0%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 19.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→20)
$23.95
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 36.9%)
$86.38
(+304%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 36.9%)
$54.89
(+157%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 36.9%)
$46.66
(+118%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.46
Bull Case
$48.82
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.1
Base Case
$44.38
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.2
Bear Case
$15.09
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$32.86
(+53.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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