AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$22.73
1.66 (7.88%)
▲
5d:
+7.78%
30d:
-10.51%
90d:
-27.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMRC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMRC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.13
43.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $22.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.57 to $26.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.38, while resistance sits at $23.96. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+87.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $18.38, while resistance sits at $23.96. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.50 (+87.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.57 -
$26.38
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 87.0% below Wall St target ($42.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.57 -
$26.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.81
(12.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.38
Resistance Level
$23.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.70
Wall Street Target
$42.50
(+87.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.7%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 20.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.46
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.57
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→20)
$24.19
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 50.6%)
$116.10
(+411%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 50.6%)
$76.71
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 50.6%)
$65.21
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$46.35
(+104%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.0
Base Case
$42.14
(+85%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.3
Bear Case
$14.33
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$33.19
(+46.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMRC price and gamma walls.
