AMRC
Ameresco, Inc.
CONSTRUCTION - SPECIAL TRADE CONTRACTORS
Ameresco (AMRC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$26.51
-1.11 (-4.02%)
▼
5d:
+24.75%
30d:
+26.9%
90d:
-4.61%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
0d
Protect AMRC Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (31%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$18.88 – $23.02
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.3x
CHEAP
vs 18.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$39.30
+48.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
28th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.09 / $28.61
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: AMRC is 15.2% above its trading range ($23.02). Market expects -5.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.01
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $26.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.88 to $23.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.3) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.09, while resistance sits at $28.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.30 (+48.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.09, while resistance sits at $28.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.30 (+48.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.88 -
$23.02
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
28th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
30.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.88 -
$23.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.10
(11.7%)
Support Level
$18.09
Resistance Level
$28.61
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMRC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+15.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 28th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 48.2% below Wall St target ($39.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.27
Wall Street Target
$39.30
(+48.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.6%
Profit Margin
-1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.08
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$23.72
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$22.44
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$26.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.1%)
$67.49
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 25.1%)
$51.88
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 25.1%)
$44.09
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case
$60.76
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$55.24
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$18.78
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$31.43
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AMRC)
Bearish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
3
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Ameresco (AMRC) is set to report Q3 earnings tomorrow with revenue growth expected at 8.9% YoY. The company has a history of exceeding Wall Street's expectations and its peers Quanta and FTAI Infrastructure have already reported strong Q3 results.
Key Retail Themes:
Beating analysts' expectations
Strong Q3 results from peers
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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