Ameresco (AMRC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$23.78
0.99 (4.34%)
â˛
5d:
+4.44%
30d:
-13.87%
90d:
-14.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $23.08 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMRC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMRC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.20
37.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $23.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.97 to $26.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.63, while resistance sits at $24.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.70 (+79.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.63, while resistance sits at $24.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.70 (+79.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.97 -
$26.46
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMRC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 79.6% below Wall St target ($42.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.97 -
$26.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.94
(12.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.63
Resistance Level
$24.53
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$42.70
(+79.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.0%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.64
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$19.69
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$17.92
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â19)
$23.81
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 35.4%)
$82.41
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 35.4%)
$59.05
(+148%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 35.4%)
$50.19
(+111%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$50.14
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$45.58
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.0
Bear Case
$15.50
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$31.59
(+32.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMRC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMRC price and gamma walls.
