Ameresco (AMRC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$21.57
0.57 (2.71%)
â˛
5d:
+0.42%
30d:
-1.15%
90d:
-20.26%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMRC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -11.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMRC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -11.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.40
42.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $21.57, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.37 to $23.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.18, while resistance sits at $24.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.70 (+98.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.18, while resistance sits at $24.65.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.70 (+98.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.37 -
$23.46
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
53th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMRC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 53th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 98.0% below Wall St target ($42.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.37 -
$23.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.74
(12.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.18
Resistance Level
$24.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.11
Wall Street Target
$42.70
(+98.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.0%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 18.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$17.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$15.72
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â19)
$22.55
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 35.4%)
$83.35
(+286%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 35.4%)
$53.56
(+148%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 35.4%)
$45.52
(+111%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$46.20
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$42.00
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.4
Bear Case
$14.28
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$30.93
(+43.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AMRC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMRC price and gamma walls.
