ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock
$120.78
-5.12 (-4.07%)
▼
5d:
-10.77%
30d:
-2.59%
90d:
+12.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
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Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARES is down 10.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARES is down 10.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.67
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.37
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $120.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.18 to $131.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 770.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.24 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.24 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$123.18 -
$131.36
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($145.24)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.18 -
$131.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.32
Resistance Level
$141.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.20
Wall Street Target
$145.24
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
770.5%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.50
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$119.19
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$115.97
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$126.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.2%)
$298.32
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 23.2%)
$235.57
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 23.2%)
$200.23
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.94
Bull Case
$152.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$125.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$96.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$136.89
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Judy D Olian
BUY
480 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced ARES Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.
