What is the fair value of ARES stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARES to be between $114.55 and $124.29. The current price is $123.70.

What is the analyst price target for ARES?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARES is $144.80. This implies a potential upside of 17.1% from current levels.

Ares Management (ARES) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$123.70

6.69 (5.72%) ▲

5d: +8.48%

30d: +1.83%

90d: -2.22%

BUY

MODERATE Confidence

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 5d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 22, 2026 at $121.81 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 6.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

ARES is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; ARES has been on it 4 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-22.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 23.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$243.58

Based on 13.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$151.24

18.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $123.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.55 to $124.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: ARES scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.80 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $114.55 - $124.29

Company Quality Score 65/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 78.6%

All Signals

BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($144.80)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $114.55 - $124.29

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $110.30

Resistance Level $123.92

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.40

Wall Street Target $144.80 (+17.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.5%

Profit Margin 12.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.4 vs 18.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $121.72 (-2%)

2-Year Target $119.77 (-3%)

3-Year Target $117.86 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→18) $123.25 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.4%) $265.15 (+114%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 23.4%) $232.36 (+88%)

Bear: (PE: 14.8, Growth: 23.4%) $197.50 (+60%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 16.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.29

Bull Case $149.37 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.8

Base Case $123.70 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.0

Bear Case $94.63 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 18.2

Stabilization Target: $129.36 (+4.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.6%

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:06 AM

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Advanced ARES Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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