ARES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARES - Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock
$120.45
-1.36 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-6.13%
90d:
+19.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 770% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARES appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 770% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.24
Based on 14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.10
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARES is currently trading at $120.45, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.71 to $130.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.5) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 770.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.79, while resistance sits at $125.09.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $142.76 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARES is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.79, while resistance sits at $125.09.
Market Sentiment: ARES has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $142.76 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$114.71 -
$130.93
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($142.76)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.71 -
$130.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.79
Resistance Level
$125.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.46
Wall Street Target
$142.76
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
770.5%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.99
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$111.70
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$107.57
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$120.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.9%)
$302.97
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 23.9%)
$228.95
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 23.9%)
$194.61
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 19.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.11
Bull Case
$147.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$121.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$93.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$134.66
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Boozman
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Judy D Olian
BUY
480 shares
2026-02-20
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Advanced ARES Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARES price and gamma walls.
