Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASND - Ascendis Pharma A/S American Depositary Shares
$225.25
-1.37 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-1.74%
30d:
-5.77%
90d:
-10.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASND trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASND trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.37
Based on -10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASND is currently trading at $225.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $221.88 to $250.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (29.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $219.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.28 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $219.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.28 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$221.88 -
$250.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.4% below Wall St target ($307.28)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 78/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$221.88 -
$250.05
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.52
Resistance Level
$234.01
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.42
Wall Street Target
$307.28
(+36.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
114.7%
Profit Margin
70.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 29.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$207.91
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$191.90
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$177.12
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→30)
$225.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: -24.8%)
$164.21
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -24.8%)
$139.22
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -24.8%)
$118.34
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.05
Bull Case
$183.69
(-19%)
Analyst growth -26.3%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$166.99
(-26%)
Market implied -26.3%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$154.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.4 to 29.8
Stabilization Target:
$286.56
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 16, 2026 7:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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