ASND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASND - Ascendis Pharma A/S American Depositary Shares
$247.40
-1.10 (-0.44%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.22%
30d:
-5.21%
90d:
+2.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ASND is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ASND is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.06
Based on -4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASND is currently trading at $247.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $246.57 to $262.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.8) is in line with its historical norms (30.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.56, while resistance sits at $258.55.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.06 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.56, while resistance sits at $258.55.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.06 (+25.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$246.57 -
$262.83
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($310.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$246.57 -
$262.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$239.56
Resistance Level
$258.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.80
Wall Street Target
$310.06
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
114.7%
Profit Margin
70.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.8 vs 30.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$242.95
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$238.57
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$234.28
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29â30)
$247.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.8, Growth: -13.4%)
$180.35
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -13.4%)
$125.94
(-49%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -13.4%)
$107.05
(-57%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.90
Bull Case
$182.03
(-26%)
Analyst growth -33.4%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$165.48
(-33%)
Market implied -33.4%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$168.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.8 to 30.4
Stabilization Target:
$261.15
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 17, 2026 6:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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