ASND
Ascendis Pharma A/S American Depositary Shares
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Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$256.55
-3.30 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
+2.55%
30d:
+13.02%
90d:
+0.43%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$227.25 – $252.00
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
28.8x
FAIR
vs 29.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$306.39
+19.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$243.45 / $260.66
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.24
Based on -3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASND is currently trading at $256.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $227.25 to $252.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.8) is in line with its historical norms (29.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $260.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $306.39 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $260.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $306.39 (+19.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$227.25 -
$252.00
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$227.25 -
$252.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$243.45
Resistance Level
$260.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($306.39)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.84
Wall Street Target
$306.39
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
114.7%
Profit Margin
70.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.8 vs 29.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$254.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$252.46
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$250.44
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→30)
$257.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.8, Growth: -11.7%)
$187.03
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -11.7%)
$128.80
(-50%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -11.7%)
$109.48
(-57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.05
Bull Case
$194.85
(-24%)
Analyst growth -31.8%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$177.14
(-31%)
Market implied -31.8%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$176.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.8 to 29.6
Stabilization Target:
$263.33
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ASND)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
May 4, 2023
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on ASND are bullish (sentiment score +0.83) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 11:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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