Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASND - Ascendis Pharma A/S American Depositary Shares
$264.17
2.94 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
+3.41%
90d:
+22.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASND shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.58
Based on -12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASND is currently trading at $264.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $247.24 to $263.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.5) is in line with its historical norms (30.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $246.30, while resistance sits at $272.47.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $314.92 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $246.30, while resistance sits at $272.47.
Market Sentiment: ASND scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $314.92 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$247.24 -
$263.30
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.6% below Wall St target ($314.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$247.24 -
$263.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$246.30
Resistance Level
$272.47
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.46
Wall Street Target
$314.92
(+20.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
114.7%
Profit Margin
70.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 30.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.72
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$272.32
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$278.04
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$261.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: -28.7%)
$190.44
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -28.7%)
$118.33
(-55%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -28.7%)
$100.58
(-62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 20.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.55
Bull Case
$183.96
(-30%)
Analyst growth -35.9%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$167.24
(-36%)
Market implied -35.9%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$177.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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