BGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGS - B&G Foods, Inc.
$3.91
0.13 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-8.12%
90d:
-20.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.16
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.44
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGS is currently trading at $3.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.89 to $4.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.77, while resistance sits at $4.11. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+37.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.77, while resistance sits at $4.11. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+37.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.89 -
$4.13
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($5.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.89 -
$4.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.77
Resistance Level
$4.11
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$5.20
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.9%
Profit Margin
-4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 8.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.40
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.06
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$3.90
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$17.93
(+374%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$4.77
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$4.05
(+7%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$5.35
(+41.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew D Vogel
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
David L Wenner
SELL
19500 shares
2026-03-13
Martin C Schoch
SELL
11321 shares
2026-03-12
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