BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$82.72
-6.06 (-6.83%)
▼
5d:
-6.96%
30d:
-1.91%
90d:
+15.13%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.10
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $82.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.37 to $89.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $68.07. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $68.07. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$80.37 -
$89.21
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BHP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading 17.7% above Wall St target ($68.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.37 -
$89.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.49
Resistance Level
$93.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.55
Wall Street Target
$68.07
(-17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.05
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$83.38
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$83.72
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.37
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$144.00
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 7.3%)
$102.20
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$86.87
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.02
Bull Case
$129.23
(+56%)
Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$117.48
(+42%)
Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$60.37
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 07, 2026 11:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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