Is BHP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, BHP is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: BHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of BHP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for BHP to be between $84.50 and $93.78. The current price is $84.97.

What is the analyst price target for BHP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for BHP is $76.75. This implies a potential upside of -9.3% from current levels.

BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)

Metal Mining

$84.97

0.31 (0.37%) ▲

5d: -0.01%

30d: -9.06%

90d: +1.58%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 17, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 25, 2026 at $85.19 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -4.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$78.58

Based on -0.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$48.79

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $84.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.50 to $93.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $82.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: BHP scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $84.50 - $93.78

Company Quality Score 70/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 86.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($76.75)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with 18.3% revenue growth
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $84.50 - $93.78

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $82.93

Resistance Level $88.31

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.37

Wall Street Target $76.75 (-9.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -9.0%

Profit Margin 16.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.4% premium

PE vs Historical 17.4 vs 16.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $86.68 (+2%)

2-Year Target $88.76 (+5%)

3-Year Target $90.89 (+7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→16) PE COMPRESSION $84.76 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: -4.1%) $87.68 (+4%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -4.1%) $74.66 (-12%)

Bear: (PE: 14.8, Growth: -4.1%) $63.46 (-25%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.87

Bull Case $117.51 (+39%)

Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 24.1

Base Case $106.82 (+26%)

Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 21.9

Bear Case $57.69 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 12:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM

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Advanced BHP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.

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BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)

Metal Mining

About

BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018 and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low nickel prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $141,555,149,855

Employees: 90,000

Listed Since: 1987-05-28

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000811809

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