BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$97.03
3.40 (3.63%)
▲
5d:
+11.81%
30d:
+16.0%
90d:
+14.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $90.41 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.64
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $97.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.45 to $90.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: BHP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $74.07. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: BHP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $74.07. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.45 -
$90.44
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
Protect Your Profits
BHP is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading 23.7% above Wall St target ($74.07)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.1% growth with 18.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.45 -
$90.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.48
Resistance Level
$97.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.91
Wall Street Target
$74.07
(-23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 15.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.89
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$113.39
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$122.57
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$97.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -4.1%)
$86.26
(+-11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.1%)
$85.58
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: -4.1%)
$67.91
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.92
Bull Case
$128.03
(+32%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$116.39
(+20%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$63.67
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BHP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.
