BHP
BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
Metal Mining
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BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$82.06
+0.94 (+1.16%)
▲
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
-3.4%
90d:
-5.93%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (82%)
Quality Score
66/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$79.37 – $84.97
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.8x
FAIR
vs 16.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$78.14
-4.8% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$77.84 / $83.38
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BHP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 27, 2026 at $82.46 · last confirmed Nov 5, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.07
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $82.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.37 to $84.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BHP scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BHP scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.37 -
$84.97
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$79.37 -
$84.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$77.84
Resistance Level
$83.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($78.14)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 18.3% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.84
Wall Street Target
$78.14
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.04
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$84.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$85.05
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.1%)
$85.36
(+4%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: -4.1%)
$72.38
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: -4.1%)
$61.52
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$112.64
(+37%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$102.40
(+25%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$55.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BHP)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Sep 22, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BHP are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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