BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$81.37
-0.31 (-0.38%)
▼
5d:
-2.71%
30d:
-1.9%
90d:
+5.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BHP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.91
14.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $81.37, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.36 to $88.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.81, while resistance sits at $84.57.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.81, while resistance sits at $84.57.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$80.36 -
$88.20
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($73.64)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.36 -
$88.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.81
Resistance Level
$84.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.96
Wall Street Target
$73.64
(-9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.43
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.50
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$84.58
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.60
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 83.1%)
$113.80
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 83.1%)
$83.42
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 83.1%)
$70.90
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$113.64
(+40%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$103.31
(+27%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$55.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BHP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.
