Is BHP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, BHP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of BHP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for BHP to be between $87.70 and $95.03. The current price is $87.15.

What is the analyst price target for BHP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for BHP is $76.25. This implies a potential upside of -12.5% from current levels.

BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)

Metal Mining

$87.15

-0.20 (-0.23%) ▼

5d: -6.0%

30d: -3.3%

90d: -0.97%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your BHP Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 18, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $90.42 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -4.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$78.10

Based on -0.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$48.49

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $87.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.70 to $95.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: BHP scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $76.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $87.70 - $95.03

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading 12.5% above Wall St target ($76.25)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with 18.3% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $87.70 - $95.03

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $86.59

Resistance Level $97.24

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.88

Wall Street Target $76.25 (-12.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -9.0%

Profit Margin 16.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.7% premium

PE vs Historical 17.9 vs 16.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $90.37 (+4%)

2-Year Target $93.72 (+8%)

3-Year Target $97.19 (+12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→16) PE COMPRESSION $87.49 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.1%) $86.69 (+-1%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: -4.1%) $76.87 (-12%)

Bear: (PE: 15.2, Growth: -4.1%) $65.34 (-25%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 23.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66

Bull Case $127.92 (+47%)

Analyst growth 33.1%, PE expands to 26.3

Base Case $116.29 (+33%)

Market implied 33.1%, PE stable at 23.9

Bear Case $59.40 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM

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Advanced BHP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.

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BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)

Metal Mining

About

BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018 and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low nickel prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $141,555,149,855

Employees: 90,000

Listed Since: 1987-05-28

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000811809

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