BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$82.50
-3.28 (-3.82%)
▼
5d:
-10.45%
30d:
-2.87%
90d:
+20.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BHP is down 10.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BHP is down 10.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.28
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $82.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.65 to $90.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $73.79. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $73.79. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$83.65 -
$90.41
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BHP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading 14.0% above Wall St target ($73.79)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.65 -
$90.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.78
Resistance Level
$93.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.51
Wall Street Target
$73.79
(-14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.95
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$86.12
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$86.30
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$154.07
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 8.5%)
$109.71
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.5%)
$93.25
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.02
Bull Case
$132.99
(+55%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$120.90
(+41%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$59.75
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.
