BP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BP - BP p.l.c.
$43.68
0.28 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
+4.87%
30d:
-6.95%
90d:
+12.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.4% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.80
Based on -9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $43.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.95 to $46.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 474.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.12, while resistance sits at $46.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.46 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.12, while resistance sits at $46.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.46 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$42.95 -
$46.19
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($49.46)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.95 -
$46.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.12
Resistance Level
$46.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.76
Wall Street Target
$49.46
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
474.5%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.32
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$39.09
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$36.98
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$43.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$64.84
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: -23.7%)
$31.84
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -23.7%)
$27.07
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$91.63
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$83.30
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$28.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$51.56
(+18.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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