SU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SU - Suncor Energy, Inc.
$63.43
-1.02 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-3.6%
30d:
+11.95%
90d:
-8.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SU appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.8% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.38
Based on -7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SU is currently trading at $63.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.01 to $65.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SU is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SU is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SU has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$57.01 -
$65.56
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.28)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.01 -
$65.56
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.68
Resistance Level
$67.48
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$70.28
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 10.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.42
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$54.79
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$50.51
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$64.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -19.7%)
$118.05
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -19.7%)
$46.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -19.7%)
$39.94
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$145.16
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$131.96
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$44.87
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$82.02
(+27.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 05, 2026 2:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SU Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SU price and gamma walls.
