BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$45.26
+0.68 (+1.53%)
▲
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
-6.74%
90d:
+5.67%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
58/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$45.36 – $49.94
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.5x
CHEAP
vs 11.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$55.31
+22.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$43.38 / $50.83
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $48.02 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 9.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.70
Based on -14.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $45.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.36 to $49.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 305.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.38, while resistance sits at $50.83.
Market Sentiment: BP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.31 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.38, while resistance sits at $50.83.
Market Sentiment: BP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.31 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$45.36 -
$49.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$45.36 -
$49.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$43.38
Resistance Level
$50.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($55.31)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.51
Wall Street Target
$55.31
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
305.0%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$36.66
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$32.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$48.34
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -33.9%)
$87.28
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -33.9%)
$32.99
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -33.9%)
$28.05
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$98.08
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$89.16
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$30.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$66.31
(+46.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BP)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BP are bearish (sentiment score -0.95) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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