Is BP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, BP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of BP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for BP to be between $43.88 and $48.32. The current price is $50.05.

What is the analyst price target for BP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for BP is $53.48. This implies a potential upside of 6.9% from current levels.

BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BP - BP p.l.c.

Petroleum Refining

$50.05

0.20 (0.40%) ▲

5d: +3.32%

30d: +12.5%

90d: +14.22%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your BP Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 30, 2026 7d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 7, 2026 at $44.51 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -29.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$31.23

Based on -12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$19.39

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $50.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.88 to $48.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 138.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: BP scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $43.88 - $48.32

Company Quality Score 35/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

Protect Your Profits

BP is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.48)
WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $43.88 - $48.32

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $46.08

Resistance Level $50.42

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.72

Wall Street Target $53.48 (+6.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 48.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 138.9%

Profit Margin 2.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -8.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.7 vs 11.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -8.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $46.05 (-8%)

2-Year Target $42.36 (-15%)

3-Year Target $38.97 (-22%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→11) $50.08 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -29.3%) $83.14 (+66%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -29.3%) $36.49 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 7.4, Growth: -29.3%) $31.01 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05

Bull Case $109.67 (+119%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.8

Base Case $99.70 (+99%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.3

Bear Case $33.90 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 11.2

Stabilization Target: $64.32 (+28.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +28.5%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:18 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced BP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BP price and gamma walls.

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