BP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BP - BP p.l.c.
$40.83
1.63 (4.16%)
▲
5d:
+9.2%
30d:
-4.94%
90d:
-12.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.80
Based on -8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $40.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.55 to $42.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 474.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: BP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.43 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: BP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.43 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.55 -
$42.24
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.55 -
$42.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.04
Resistance Level
$41.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$47.43
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
474.5%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$36.85
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$35.01
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$40.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -21.1%)
$62.59
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -21.1%)
$29.77
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -21.1%)
$25.30
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$86.24
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$78.40
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$26.66
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$47.70
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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