PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$17.00
-0.01 (-0.06%)
▼
5d:
-1.96%
30d:
-15.13%
90d:
-11.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PBR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PBR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.85
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $17.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.35 to $19.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.1) compared to its historical average (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.23 (+36.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.23 (+36.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.35 -
$19.63
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($23.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.35 -
$19.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.63
Resistance Level
$19.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.14
Wall Street Target
$23.23
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 6.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.31
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$17.99
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$84.15
(+395%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.98
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: -2.1%)
$13.58
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.18
Bull Case
$23.83
(+40%)
Analyst growth 29.3%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$21.67
(+27%)
Market implied 29.3%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$11.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$24.68
(+45.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
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2026-04-02
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
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19 shares
2026-04-01
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