PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$25.62
-0.04 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
+21.19%
90d:
+36.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.46
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $25.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.80 to $25.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (5.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.80 -
$25.18
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($23.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.80 -
$25.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.61
Resistance Level
$26.12
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.19
Wall Street Target
$23.95
(-6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
96.8%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.52
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$27.44
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$28.41
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.7%)
$62.56
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: -8.7%)
$19.51
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: -8.7%)
$16.58
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$29.49
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$26.80
(+5%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$17.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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