PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$21.20
-0.18 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
+3.36%
30d:
+19.37%
90d:
+16.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.20
Based on -2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $21.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.87 to $20.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.3) is in line with its historical norms (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 96.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.87 -
$20.20
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.87 -
$20.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.18
Resistance Level
$21.59
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.32
Wall Street Target
$22.38
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
96.8%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 5.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.86
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$20.53
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$20.20
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$21.27
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -9.7%)
$59.27
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: -9.7%)
$15.63
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: -9.7%)
$13.28
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$23.21
(+10%)
Analyst growth -1.3%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$21.10
(-1%)
Market implied -1.3%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$14.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.33
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-02
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
SELL
19 shares
2026-04-01
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