CHEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$110.45
-0.86 (-0.77%)
▼
5d:
+10.25%
30d:
+16.27%
90d:
+41.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CHEF is 11.4% above its trading range ($99.18). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CHEF is 11.4% above its trading range ($99.18). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.72
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $110.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.96 to $99.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 37.2) compared to its historical average (30.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $90.97, while resistance sits at $117.33.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $90.97, while resistance sits at $117.33.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$93.96 -
$99.18
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.56)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.3% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.96 -
$99.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.97
Resistance Level
$117.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.16
Wall Street Target
$113.56
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
37.2 vs 30.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.42
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$128.14
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$137.50
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$111.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.2, Growth: 19.5%)
$190.14
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.5%)
$106.08
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 19.5%)
$90.17
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 29.33 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.80
Bull Case
$134.39
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$111.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$85.14
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 10:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher Pappas
SELL
95908 shares
2026-03-03
Christina Polychroni
SELL
3317 shares
2026-03-02
Alexandros Aldous
SELL
29500 shares
2026-02-27
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