Performance Food Group (PFGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$94.71
-3.18 (-3.25%)
▼
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
+4.86%
90d:
-17.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PFGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PFGC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.20
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $94.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.00 to $95.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.33 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.33 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$91.00 -
$95.46
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($125.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$91.00 -
$95.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.41
Resistance Level
$98.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.59
Wall Street Target
$125.33
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 16.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.09
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$95.47
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$95.85
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$94.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 0.0%)
$113.39
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 0.0%)
$94.71
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$80.50
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$215.36
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.6
Base Case
$195.78
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case
$66.57
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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