PFGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$104.98
1.00 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
-2.12%
30d:
-4.83%
90d:
+10.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PFGC is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PFGC is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.40
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $104.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.97 to $114.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $101.83, while resistance sits at $115.87.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.62 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $101.83, while resistance sits at $115.87.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.62 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$106.97 -
$114.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($123.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$106.97 -
$114.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.83
Resistance Level
$115.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.39
Wall Street Target
$123.62
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.28
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$113.76
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$118.43
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$114.59
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$104.98
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 0.0%)
$89.23
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$228.76
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.5
Base Case
$207.96
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.0
Bear Case
$70.71
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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