Performance Food Group (PFGC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$93.85
2.01 (2.19%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
-5.51%
90d:
-17.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When PFGC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PFGC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PFGC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.40
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $93.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.04 to $101.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $94.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.58 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $94.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.58 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$91.04 -
$101.11
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.8% below Wall St target ($125.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$91.04 -
$101.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.93
Resistance Level
$94.60
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.44
Wall Street Target
$125.58
(+33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 16.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.04
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$94.23
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$94.41
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$93.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$116.47
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$93.85
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 0.0%)
$79.77
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case
$202.05
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.9
Base Case
$183.68
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.9
Bear Case
$62.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Food Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Food Distribution by analyst ratings.
