The Chef's Warehouse (CHEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$117.64
5.08 (4.51%)
▲
5d:
+6.68%
30d:
+3.71%
90d:
+23.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$135.35
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $117.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.23 to $113.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 36.8) compared to its historical average (31.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $116.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.23 -
$113.94
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($122.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.23 -
$113.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.33
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.73
Resistance Level
$116.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.80
Wall Street Target
$122.00
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
36.8 vs 31.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.75
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$125.28
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$132.17
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$112.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.8, Growth: 20.5%)
$196.96
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.5%)
$109.18
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 20.5%)
$92.80
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 25.58 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.40
Bull Case
$135.92
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$112.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$86.11
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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