The Chef's Warehouse (CHEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$110.45
0.68 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
-3.29%
30d:
-0.56%
90d:
+23.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.51
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $110.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.90 to $113.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.9) compared to its historical average (31.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHEF scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHEF scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$108.90 -
$113.54
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($119.44)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.90 -
$113.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.81
Resistance Level
$117.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.93
Wall Street Target
$119.44
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
35.9 vs 31.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.97
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$121.77
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$127.86
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$110.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$195.70
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.0%)
$109.87
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$93.39
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 29.33 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.77
Bull Case
$133.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$110.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$84.49
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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