CHEF
The Chef's Warehouse Inc
WHOLESALE-GROCERIES, GENERAL LINE
The Chef's Warehouse (CHEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$107.30
-0.88 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
+0.43%
30d:
-0.45%
90d:
-4.24%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (85%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$104.61 – $111.97
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
35.2x
FAIR
vs 31.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$118.33
+10.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
8th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$100.05 / $110.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
🚀 STRONG BUY: CHEF shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 8th percentile) and market pricing in only 3.4% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.86
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $107.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.61 to $111.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.2) compared to its historical average (31.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHEF scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.33 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $110.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHEF scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $118.33 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$104.61 -
$111.97
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$104.61 -
$111.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.20
(4.8%)
Support Level
$100.05
Resistance Level
$110.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($118.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 79/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.20
Wall Street Target
$118.33
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.9%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
35.2 vs 31.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.95
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$114.72
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$118.62
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.2, Growth: 19.1%)
$181.44
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$102.36
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$87.01
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.33
Bull Case
$155.67
(+45%)
Analyst growth 30.8%, PE expands to 51.1
Base Case
$141.52
(+32%)
Market implied 30.8%, PE stable at 46.4
Bear Case
$73.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CHEF)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits are bullish about $CHEF, with one message indicating that the stock is breaking out to new all-time highs. No recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
New highs
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHEF price and gamma walls.
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