The Chef's Warehouse (CHEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$107.29
-2.81 (-2.55%)
▼
5d:
-6.11%
30d:
-1.47%
90d:
+13.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CHEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.68
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $107.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.90 to $113.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 34.5) is in line with its historical norms (31.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.75 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.75 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$108.90 -
$113.17
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($124.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.90 -
$113.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.62
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.75
Resistance Level
$116.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.53
Wall Street Target
$124.75
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
34.5 vs 31.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.40
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$113.60
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$116.90
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.5, Growth: 21.9%)
$194.48
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.9%)
$111.85
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.9%)
$95.07
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 25.58 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.20
Bull Case
$129.55
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$107.29
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$82.08
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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