USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$109.62
1.16 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
+0.64%
30d:
+14.69%
90d:
+34.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.44
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $109.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.48 to $108.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$97.48 -
$108.11
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding USFD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($115.88)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.48 -
$108.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.82
Resistance Level
$111.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.85
Wall Street Target
$115.88
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 16.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.65
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$122.01
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$128.72
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$109.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.3%)
$169.93
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 15.3%)
$168.07
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.3%)
$142.86
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.28
Bull Case
$200.87
(+83%)
Analyst growth 68.4%, PE expands to 36.4
Base Case
$182.61
(+67%)
Market implied 68.4%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$73.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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