USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$94.01
1.25 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+0.61%
30d:
+15.72%
90d:
+5.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.32
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $94.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.83 to $91.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.40 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.40 (+14.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.83 -
$91.31
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.83 -
$91.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.11
Resistance Level
$89.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.04
Wall Street Target
$107.40
(+14.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$96.28
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$97.44
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$94.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.0%)
$192.50
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 17.0%)
$150.61
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 17.0%)
$128.01
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$189.76
(+105%)
Analyst growth 85.8%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$172.51
(+86%)
Market implied 85.8%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$63.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
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