US Foods (USFD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$97.51
3.57 (3.81%)
▲
5d:
+4.47%
30d:
-6.95%
90d:
-5.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: USFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: USFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.54
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $97.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.56 to $104.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 79/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$92.56 -
$104.93
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (79/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($116.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.56 -
$104.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.82
Resistance Level
$96.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.93
Wall Street Target
$116.00
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.65
(0%)
2-Year Target
$93.37
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$93.09
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$94.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$176.89
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$146.82
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$124.80
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.20
Bull Case
$175.83
(+87%)
Analyst growth 73.4%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$159.85
(+70%)
Market implied 73.4%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$62.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$94.86
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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