USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$100.59
0.04 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
+3.52%
30d:
-1.29%
90d:
+7.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: USFD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: USFD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.67
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $100.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.95 to $102.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $93.14, while resistance sits at $103.81.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $93.14, while resistance sits at $103.81.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$95.95 -
$102.21
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.95 -
$102.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.14
Resistance Level
$103.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.37
Wall Street Target
$105.75
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.81
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$107.13
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$110.56
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$100.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$179.88
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 16.6%)
$159.42
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 16.6%)
$135.51
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.92
Bull Case
$207.40
(+106%)
Analyst growth 87.5%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$188.54
(+87%)
Market implied 87.5%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$68.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
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