USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$101.31
0.33 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
+12.34%
90d:
+10.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USFD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.15
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $101.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.59 to $101.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$89.59 -
$101.63
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.59 -
$101.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.11
Resistance Level
$89.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.45
Wall Street Target
$105.50
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$108.74
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$112.65
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.9%)
$190.82
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.9%)
$161.69
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 16.9%)
$137.43
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$205.31
(+103%)
Analyst growth 84.8%, PE expands to 37.4
Base Case
$186.65
(+84%)
Market implied 84.8%, PE stable at 34.0
Bear Case
$68.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
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