US Foods (USFD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$104.05
1.90 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
+2.54%
30d:
+10.77%
90d:
+7.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$152.42
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $104.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.84 to $99.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.27 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $104.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.27 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$92.84 -
$99.83
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding USFD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($116.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$92.84 -
$99.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.23
Resistance Level
$104.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.77
Wall Street Target
$116.27
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.28
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$110.60
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$114.03
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$103.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$172.39
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 16.1%)
$162.95
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$138.51
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.25
Bull Case
$191.64
(+84%)
Analyst growth 70.5%, PE expands to 34.6
Base Case
$174.21
(+67%)
Market implied 70.5%, PE stable at 31.4
Bear Case
$69.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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