CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$68.72
0.31 (0.45%)
▲
5d:
-0.33%
30d:
+12.27%
90d:
-0.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.05
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $68.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.72 to $69.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $64.74, while resistance sits at $71.09.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.09 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $64.74, while resistance sits at $71.09.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.09 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$62.72 -
$69.58
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($80.09)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.72 -
$69.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.74
Resistance Level
$71.09
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.63
Wall Street Target
$80.09
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.07
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$65.46
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$63.89
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$68.34
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$210.48
(+206%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.5%)
$97.78
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.5%)
$83.11
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.32
Bull Case
$100.94
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.1%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$91.76
(+34%)
Market implied 34.1%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$46.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$73.50
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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