CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$71.14
-2.15 (-2.93%)
▼
5d:
-7.65%
30d:
+0.62%
90d:
+14.96%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.87
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $71.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.65 to $76.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $70.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.55 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $70.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.55 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$71.65 -
$76.75
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($80.55)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.65 -
$76.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.76
Resistance Level
$79.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.28
Wall Street Target
$80.55
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$70.01
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$69.45
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$70.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$182.09
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 6.5%)
$85.91
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 6.5%)
$73.03
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$124.86
(+76%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$113.51
(+60%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$49.84
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$72.69
(+2.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
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