CMC
Commercial Metals Company
STEEL WORKS, BLAST FURNACES & ROLLING MILLS (COKE OVENS)
Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$64.68
+0.44 (+0.68%)
â˛
5d:
-2.68%
30d:
-0.14%
90d:
-10.33%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$63.20 â $65.48
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.8x
CHEAP
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$78.00
+20.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$61.87 / $68.32
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CMC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.33
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.99
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $64.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.20 to $65.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.87, while resistance sits at $68.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.87, while resistance sits at $68.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+20.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$63.20 -
$65.48
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$63.20 -
$65.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$61.87
Resistance Level
$68.32
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.6% below Wall St target ($78.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.80
Wall Street Target
$78.00
(+20.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.03
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$59.48
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$57.05
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$64.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$219.96
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$97.45
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 14.6%)
$82.83
(+28%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.85
Bull Case
$88.80
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.7%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$80.72
(+25%)
Market implied 25.7%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$43.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$73.51
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CMC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 22, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Cleveland-Cliffs reported strong third-quarter results, but the sustainability of the steel price recovery is a concern due to global overcapacity. The company's free cash flow was negative in the previous year, and its heavy debt load makes it vulnerable to market shocks.
Key Retail Themes:
steel price recovery
Cleveland-Cliffs financial performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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