Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$63.79
-0.46 (-0.72%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.42%
30d:
-1.35%
90d:
-7.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CMC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CMC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.33
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.99
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $63.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.36 to $65.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.87, while resistance sits at $69.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.87, while resistance sits at $69.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.00 (+21.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$63.36 -
$65.90
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($78.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.36 -
$65.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.87
Resistance Level
$69.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.74
Wall Street Target
$78.00
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.36
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$58.60
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$55.96
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â10)
$64.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$219.96
(+242%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 14.6%)
$96.80
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$82.28
(+28%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.87
Bull Case
$89.06
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.2%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$80.96
(+26%)
Market implied 25.2%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$43.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$73.51
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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