Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$63.42
0.70 (1.12%)
▲
5d:
-3.51%
30d:
-8.29%
90d:
+1.15%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.08
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.21
9.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $63.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.78 to $68.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.63, while resistance sits at $66.69.
Market Sentiment: CMC scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.27 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.63, while resistance sits at $66.69.
Market Sentiment: CMC scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.27 (+28.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.78 -
$68.56
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($80.27)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 22% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.78 -
$68.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.63
Resistance Level
$66.69
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.58
Wall Street Target
$80.27
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.33
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$56.13
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$53.10
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$62.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$220.64
(+252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 13.9%)
$92.77
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 13.9%)
$78.86
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.29
Bull Case
$94.42
(+51%)
Analyst growth 38.2%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$85.84
(+37%)
Market implied 38.2%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$42.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$73.85
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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