Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$67.17
0.55 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
-2.3%
30d:
-7.15%
90d:
-13.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.00
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.37
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $67.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.94 to $72.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.88, while resistance sits at $71.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.18 (+20.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.88, while resistance sits at $71.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.18 (+20.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.94 -
$72.69
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($81.18)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.94 -
$72.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.88
Resistance Level
$71.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.06
Wall Street Target
$81.18
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.3%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.48
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$61.90
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$59.43
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$66.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.6%)
$237.03
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$106.43
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$90.47
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.11
Bull Case
$106.36
(+58%)
Analyst growth 45.1%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$96.69
(+44%)
Market implied 45.1%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$45.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$75.65
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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