CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$72.13
-1.16 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-6.36%
30d:
+2.02%
90d:
+16.56%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.87
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $72.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.19 to $76.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $72.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $72.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$71.19 -
$76.57
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.55)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.19 -
$76.57
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.29
Resistance Level
$79.91
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$80.55
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.36
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$73.44
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$73.51
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.91
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$182.09
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 6.5%)
$88.51
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 6.5%)
$75.23
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$123.27
(+68%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$112.07
(+53%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$49.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
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