CPA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CPA - Copa Holdings, S.A.
$146.06
4.84 (3.43%)
▲
5d:
+5.51%
30d:
-4.32%
90d:
+25.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CPA is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CPA is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.82
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CPA is currently trading at $146.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.10 to $152.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CPA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $175.13 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $146.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CPA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $175.13 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$139.10 -
$152.76
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($175.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.10 -
$152.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.61
Resistance Level
$146.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.34
Wall Street Target
$175.13
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.5%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.71
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$153.45
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$157.29
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$145.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$678.38
(+365%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$240.26
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$204.22
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.91
Bull Case
$173.79
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$157.99
(+12%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$96.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CPA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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