CPA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CPA - Copa Holdings, S.A.
$129.95
1.66 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
-4.36%
30d:
-4.25%
90d:
-5.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CPA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CPA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$209.67
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.19
0.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CPA is currently trading at $129.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.81 to $143.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $178.40 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CPA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $178.40 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$132.81 -
$143.52
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($178.40)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.81 -
$143.52
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.28
Resistance Level
$140.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.70
Wall Street Target
$178.40
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.8%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.04
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$128.14
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$127.24
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$129.09
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$600.37
(+362%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$200.50
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 15.6%)
$170.43
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.24
Bull Case
$179.53
(+38%)
Analyst growth 27.2%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$163.21
(+26%)
Market implied 27.2%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$87.24
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$131.84
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 1:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CPA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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