Is UAL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, UAL is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: UAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of UAL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for UAL to be between $111.54 and $127.08. The current price is $111.38.

What is the analyst price target for UAL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for UAL is $161.41. This implies a potential upside of 44.9% from current levels.

UAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

$111.38

2.72 (2.50%) ▲

5d: +0.71%

30d: -13.74%

90d: +5.34%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $110.70 · last confirmed Sep 4, 2026

Strength: 5.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$222.40

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$138.10

19.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UAL is currently trading at $111.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.54 to $127.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $104.15, while resistance sits at $119.73.

Market Sentiment: UAL scores 95/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.41 (+44.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $111.54 - $127.08

Company Quality Score 70/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (95/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 44.9% below Wall St target ($161.41)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 11% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $111.54 - $127.08

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $104.15

Resistance Level $119.73

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 4, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.31

Wall Street Target $161.41 (+44.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -17.2%

Profit Margin 5.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 7.3 vs 7.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $110.38 (-1%)

2-Year Target $109.38 (-2%)

3-Year Target $108.40 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→8) $111.15 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 49.5%) $1029.73 (+825%)

Base: (SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 49.5%) $372.31 (+234%)

Bear: (PE: 6.2, Growth: 49.5%) $316.46 (+184%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 10.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.71

Bull Case $169.95 (+53%)

Analyst growth 42.2%, PE expands to 11.2

Base Case $154.50 (+39%)

Market implied 42.2%, PE stable at 10.2

Bear Case $73.89 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.5

Stabilization Target: $114.21 (+2.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.5%

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Last updated: September 05, 2026 7:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-10

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Advanced UAL Option Strategies

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