UAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$128.39
7.06 (5.82%)
▲
5d:
+6.49%
30d:
-3.7%
90d:
+38.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UAL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UAL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.24
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UAL is currently trading at $128.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.04 to $131.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $130.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.15 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $130.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.15 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$118.04 -
$131.74
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($162.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 16.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.04 -
$131.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.62
Resistance Level
$130.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.85
Wall Street Target
$162.15
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.2%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.39
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$125.49
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$127.62
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.00
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 49.3%)
$1066.40
(+779%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 49.3%)
$403.62
(+233%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 49.3%)
$343.08
(+183%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.05
Bull Case
$190.21
(+57%)
Analyst growth 39.9%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$172.92
(+43%)
Market implied 39.9%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$84.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-02-10
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