ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$50.21
2.76 (5.82%)
▲
5d:
+5.71%
30d:
-1.72%
90d:
+30.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
Get Alerted When ALK Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.88
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $50.21, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.86 to $51.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.91 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.91 (+25.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$45.86 -
$51.03
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($62.91)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with 9.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.86 -
$51.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.45
Resistance Level
$50.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.39
Wall Street Target
$62.91
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
-1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 6.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.67
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$57.38
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$61.34
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.47
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (97x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 96.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$104.50
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 106.6
Base Case
$95.00
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 96.9
Bear Case
$32.30
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 82.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
24000 shares
2026-02-18
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
14500 shares
2026-02-13
Top Rated Airlines Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Airlines by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
UAL
United Airlines Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$162 | 57 HOLD |
|
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$106 | 59 HOLD |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group |
BUY
26 analysts |
$19 | 53 HOLD |
|
CPA
Copa Holdings SA |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$175 | 54 HOLD |
|
VLRS
Volaris |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$9 | 55 HOLD |
Advanced ALK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.
