What is the fair value of ALK stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ALK to be between $43.64 and $49.58. The current price is $40.41.

What is the analyst price target for ALK?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ALK is $62.59. This implies a potential upside of 54.9% from current levels.

ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.

AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

$40.41

0.23 (0.57%) ▲

5d: -12.08%

30d: -9.7%

90d: -1.65%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $48.05 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 7.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALK is down 12.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$57.59

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$35.76

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $40.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.64 to $49.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ALK scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.59 (+54.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $43.64 - $49.58

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 54.9% below Wall St target ($62.59)
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $43.64 - $49.58

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $39.87

Resistance Level $49.25

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.88

Wall Street Target $62.59 (+54.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -68.3%

Profit Margin -1.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 6.9 vs 7.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $40.25 (0%)

2-Year Target $40.09 (-1%)

3-Year Target $39.93 (-1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→7) $40.61 (+1%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.0

Stabilization Target: $41.10 (+1.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +1.7%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced ALK Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.

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