ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$46.86
0.06 (0.13%)
▲
5d:
-4.54%
30d:
+0.43%
90d:
+17.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.35
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $46.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.55 to $51.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.34 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.34 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$45.55 -
$51.75
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($65.34)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 5.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.55 -
$51.75
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.10
Resistance Level
$53.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.15
Wall Street Target
$65.34
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$48.21
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$48.94
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.53
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (96x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 96.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$110.31
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 106.1
Base Case
$100.28
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 96.4
Bear Case
$34.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 82.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
24000 shares
2026-02-18
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
14500 shares
2026-02-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.
