Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.

AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
$41.16
1.05 (2.62%) ▲
5d: -0.58%
30d: -13.11%
90d: -11.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $42.04 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: ALK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.68
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.09
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $41.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.29 to $48.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.40, while resistance sits at $43.33.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.59 (+44.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $40.29 - $48.13
Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 82.9%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($59.59)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with 9.7% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $40.29 - $48.13
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $39.40
Resistance Level $43.33
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.81
Wall Street Target $59.59 (+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -68.3%
Profit Margin -1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History +3.7% premium
PE vs Historical 7.8 vs 7.0 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $42.68 (+4%)
2-Year Target $44.26 (+8%)
3-Year Target $45.90 (+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→7) PE COMPRESSION $41.13 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
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Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced ALK Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.

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