ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$39.05
-1.98 (-4.83%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.9%
30d:
+9.29%
90d:
-15.03%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (41%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$35.13 â $39.82
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.9x
STRETCHED
vs 7.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$51.69
+32.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$34.48 / $42.35
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 34.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $39.97 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.30
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $39.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.13 to $39.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 34.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.48, while resistance sits at $42.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.69 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $34.48, while resistance sits at $42.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.69 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$35.13 -
$39.82
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$35.13 -
$39.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$34.48
Resistance Level
$42.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($51.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 34.8% growth with 14.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.89
Wall Street Target
$51.69
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
-2.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+34.8% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 7.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+34.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.64
(+35%)
2-Year Target
$70.96
(+82%)
3-Year Target
$95.65
(+145%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Expeditors International of Washington ($ALK) reported strong Q3 earnings, with revenue surpassing estimates due to robust airfreight and ocean freight demand. The company's airfreight tonnage increased 13% year over year, and ocean container volume rose 7%.
Key Retail Themes:
strong demand for air and ocean freight services
robust earnings report
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 PM
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Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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