AAL American Airlines Group Inc. AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

American Airlines Group (AAL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$13.17
-0.14 (-1.05%) â–ŧ
5d: -0.08% 30d: +7.25% 90d: -8.73%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (44%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$12.15 – $13.41
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.0x STRETCHED
vs 6.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.35
+16.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.67 / $14.37
Trend: Strong Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: AAL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 28.0% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 12, 2026 at $13.31 · last confirmed Nov 12, 2026

Strength: 5.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.85
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.49
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $13.17, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.15 to $13.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.0) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 28.0% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.67, while resistance sits at $14.37.

Market Sentiment: AAL scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.35 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $12.15 - $13.41
Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 43.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $12.15 - $13.41
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level $12.67
Resistance Level $14.37
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.35)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 28.0% growth with 19.3% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.97
Wall Street Target $15.35 (+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -88.2%
Profit Margin -0.8%
Valuation Premium vs History +28.0% premium
PE vs Historical 14.0 vs 6.7 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +28.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $16.86 (+28%)
2-Year Target $21.58 (+64%)
3-Year Target $27.62 (+110%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→7) PE COMPRESSION $13.24 (+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AAL)

Bearish 3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: StockTwits shows a split sentiment with an equal number of bullish and bearish messages regarding $AAL. No recent news articles were found.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced AAL Option Strategies

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Part A: Deep-Dive AAL Research Pages
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