AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.
$16.86
0.30 (1.78%)
▲
5d:
+13.58%
30d:
-2.01%
90d:
+36.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AAL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.53
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $16.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.86 to $17.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.08 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.08 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.86 -
$17.38
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($19.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 16.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.86 -
$17.38
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.31
Resistance Level
$16.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.59
Wall Street Target
$19.08
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.2%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.01
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$17.47
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$17.94
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.60
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 1525.6%)
$175.72
(+961%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 1525.6%)
$55.89
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 1525.6%)
$47.51
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 05, 2026 10:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.
