Is AAL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAL is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AAL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAL to be between $14.07 and $15.76. The current price is $13.95.

What is the analyst price target for AAL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAL is $18.59. This implies a potential upside of 33.2% from current levels.

AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.

AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

$13.95

0.32 (2.35%) ▲

5d: -0.71%

30d: -6.69%

90d: -6.03%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 22, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $15.47 · last confirmed Aug 24, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$28.35

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$17.60

20.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $13.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.07 to $15.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.43, while resistance sits at $15.53.

Market Sentiment: AAL scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.59 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $14.07 - $15.76

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 33.2% below Wall St target ($18.59)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $14.07 - $15.76

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $13.43

Resistance Level $15.53

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 25, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.85

Wall Street Target $18.59 (+33.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -88.2%

Profit Margin -0.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 5.9 vs 6.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $13.77 (-1%)

2-Year Target $13.59 (-3%)

3-Year Target $13.41 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→6) $14.00 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 4578.8%) $161.47 (+1058%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 4578.8%) $47.08 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 5.0, Growth: 4578.8%) $40.02 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.1

Stabilization Target: $14.56 (+4.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.3%

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Last updated: August 25, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM

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Advanced AAL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.

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