CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$38.81
2.98 (8.32%)
▲
5d:
+10.07%
30d:
+14.35%
90d:
+21.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When CVI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.93
37.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $38.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.62 to $36.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.62 -
$36.27
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 12.4% above Wall St target ($31.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.62 -
$36.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.80
Resistance Level
$37.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.37
Wall Street Target
$31.40
(-12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 23.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.12
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$37.34
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 1402.2%)
$148.25
(+314%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 1402.2%)
$120.93
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 1402.2%)
$102.79
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.10
Bull Case
$43.26
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$35.83
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$27.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$51.22
(+42.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 21, 2026 12:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:15 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carl C Icahn
BUY
275012 shares
2026-02-24
Carl C Icahn
BUY
244940 shares
2026-02-23
Top Rated Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$312 | 37 SELL |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corp |
BUY
20 analysts |
$320 | 38 SELL |
|
PSX
Phillips 66 |
BUY
19 analysts |
$220 | 34 SELL |
|
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels Corp |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$4 | 60 HOLD |
|
SUN
Sunoco LP |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$83 | 45 HOLD |
