PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$264.58
0.35 (0.13%)
â˛
5d:
+3.45%
30d:
+3.32%
90d:
+49.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PSX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PSX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$253.40
Based on -2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $264.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $246.90 to $264.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 344.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.51, while resistance sits at $275.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $248.51, while resistance sits at $275.96.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$246.90 -
$264.67
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PSX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($255.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$246.90 -
$264.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$248.51
Resistance Level
$275.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.27
Wall Street Target
$255.58
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
344.9%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$254.53
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$244.85
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$235.55
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â12)
$263.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -9.9%)
$384.91
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -9.9%)
$193.81
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -9.9%)
$164.74
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.13
Bull Case
$412.95
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.1%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$375.41
(+42%)
Market implied 42.1%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$179.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$296.22
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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