PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$284.63
-5.44 (-1.88%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.58%
30d:
+10.98%
90d:
+37.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PSX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PSX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$320.63
Based on -1.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $284.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $257.99 to $286.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 344.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $276.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PSX scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $276.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PSX scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$257.99 -
$286.26
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PSX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($285.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$257.99 -
$286.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$276.71
Resistance Level
$299.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.40
Wall Street Target
$285.05
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
344.9%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.70
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$249.90
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$234.15
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â11)
$284.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.8%)
$487.17
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -6.8%)
$230.48
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -6.8%)
$195.91
(-31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.44
Bull Case
$554.24
(+95%)
Analyst growth 73.7%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$503.86
(+77%)
Market implied 73.7%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$197.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$345.35
(+21.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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