Is PSX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PSX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PSX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PSX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PSX to be between $218.82 and $255.12. The current price is $259.47.

What is the analyst price target for PSX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PSX is $235.58. This implies a potential upside of -9.2% from current levels.

PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PSX - PHILLIPS 66

PETROLEUM REFINING

$259.47

0.96 (0.37%) ▲

5d: +1.89%

30d: +15.02%

90d: +45.69%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PSX Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 26, 2026 at $242.23 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PSX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -17.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$171.77

Based on -6.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$106.66

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $259.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $218.82 to $255.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $265.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: PSX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $218.82 - $255.12

Company Quality Score 32/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 22.4%

Protect Your Profits

PSX is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($235.58)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $218.82 - $255.12

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $239.87

Resistance Level $265.43

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.18

Wall Street Target $235.58 (-9.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 344.9%

Profit Margin 4.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.7% premium

PE vs Historical 12.2 vs 11.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $263.88 (+2%)

2-Year Target $268.37 (+3%)

3-Year Target $272.93 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) PE COMPRESSION $259.83 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -17.4%) $313.12 (+21%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: -17.4%) $189.15 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 10.4, Growth: -17.4%) $160.78 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.37

Bull Case $348.61 (+34%)

Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 16.4

Base Case $316.92 (+22%)

Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 14.9

Bear Case $175.79 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Kevin J Mitchell SELL 15629 shares 2026-03-30

Kevin Omar Meyers BUY 175 shares 2026-03-17

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