PSX
PHILLIPS 66
PETROLEUM REFINING
PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$264.90
+1.99 (+0.76%)
▲
5d:
+7.81%
30d:
-8.4%
90d:
+10.12%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$260.38 – $289.04
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.2x
CHEAP
vs 11.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$291.32
+10.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$240.93 / $283.47
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PSX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$333.03
Based on -1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $264.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $260.38 to $289.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4299.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $240.93, while resistance sits at $283.47.
Market Sentiment: PSX scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $240.93, while resistance sits at $283.47.
Market Sentiment: PSX scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$260.38 -
$289.04
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$260.38 -
$289.04
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$240.93
Resistance Level
$283.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($291.32)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$291.32
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4299.0%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$238.67
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$215.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$193.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$264.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.1%)
$513.29
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -7.1%)
$212.11
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -7.1%)
$180.29
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.18
Bull Case
$299.39
(+13%)
Analyst growth 3.5%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$272.17
(+3%)
Market implied 3.5%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$178.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$361.52
(+36.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PSX)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Cenovus Energy aims to enhance refining margins through market expansion and operational improvements.
Key Retail Themes:
Refining margin improvement through market expansion
Operational improvements and commercial optimization
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 7:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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