VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$348.86
7.35 (2.15%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+14.28%
90d:
+44.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $298.31 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$201.92
Based on -12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$125.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $348.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $298.18 to $334.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 453.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $352.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $312.53. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $352.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $312.53. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$298.18 -
$334.08
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
VLO is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.4% above Wall St target ($312.53)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$298.18 -
$334.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$301.35
Resistance Level
$352.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.43
Wall Street Target
$312.53
(-10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
453.5%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 13.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$327.58
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$307.60
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$288.83
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$348.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -29.7%)
$446.55
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: -29.7%)
$254.32
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -29.7%)
$216.17
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.67
Bull Case
$484.39
(+39%)
Analyst growth 28.9%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$440.35
(+26%)
Market implied 28.9%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$232.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$421.18
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
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Advanced VLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLO price and gamma walls.
