VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
PETROLEUM REFINING
Valero Energy (VLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$363.71
+13.00 (+3.71%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
-20.32%
90d:
+6.06%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
Protect VLO Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (93%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$373.49 – $442.25
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.8x
CHEAP
vs 12.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$427.00
+17.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$341.51 / $400.60
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: VLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 27, 2026 at $387.34 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
Get Alerted When VLO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$579.34
Based on -3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$359.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $363.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $373.49 to $442.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 576.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $341.51, while resistance sits at $400.60. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $427.00 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $341.51, while resistance sits at $400.60. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $427.00 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$373.49 -
$442.25
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$373.49 -
$442.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$341.51
Resistance Level
$400.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding VLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($427.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 11% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.80
Wall Street Target
$427.00
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
576.8%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$327.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$294.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$265.14
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→13)
$503.07
(+38%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -10.6%)
$774.49
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: -10.6%)
$265.14
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -10.6%)
$225.37
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $43.97
Bull Case
$469.35
(+29%)
Analyst growth 21.7%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$426.68
(+17%)
Market implied 21.7%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$238.48
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$690.08
(+89.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+89.7%
Share VLO Analysis
Share this live VLO analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VLO)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Exxon Mobil ($VLO) produced free cash flow of 6.3% of its market value over the last twelve months. The article discusses the company's history of positive free cash flow and its dependency on oil prices and refining operations.
Key Retail Themes:
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Oil Prices
Refining Operations
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
PSX
Phillips 66 |
BUY
20 analysts |
$292 | 60 HOLD |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corp |
HOLD
18 analysts |
$467 | 58 HOLD |
|
SUN
Sunoco LP |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$83 | 56 HOLD |
|
DINO
HF Sinclair Corp |
HOLD
17 analysts |
$123 | 62 BUY |
|
DK
Delek US Energy Inc |
HOLD
14 analysts |
$86 | 62 BUY |
Advanced VLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLO price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive VLO Research Pages
