Valero Energy (VLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$436.75
3.33 (0.77%)
â˛
5d:
-5.01%
30d:
+15.81%
90d:
+43.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VLO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VLO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$580.43
Based on -2.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$360.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $436.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $389.06 to $438.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 453.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $423.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $423.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VLO scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$389.06 -
$438.78
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($419.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$389.06 -
$438.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$423.69
Resistance Level
$461.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.89
Wall Street Target
$419.42
(-4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
453.5%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 13.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$393.08
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$353.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$318.39
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â13)
$472.80
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.2%)
$754.67
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -8.2%)
$337.78
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: -8.2%)
$287.11
(-34%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $24.00
Bull Case
$953.53
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$866.84
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$294.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$648.56
(+48.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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