VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$312.90
1.19 (0.38%)
▲
5d:
+3.44%
30d:
+16.13%
90d:
+23.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
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Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$147.43
Based on -14.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $312.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $261.85 to $308.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 317.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $320.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $320.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$261.85 -
$308.21
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($290.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$261.85 -
$308.21
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$294.21
Resistance Level
$320.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.41
Wall Street Target
$290.22
(-7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
317.9%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$300.38
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$288.37
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$276.83
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$312.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -33.9%)
$381.03
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -33.9%)
$228.10
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -33.9%)
$193.89
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.15
Bull Case
$610.98
(+95%)
Analyst growth 78.2%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$555.43
(+78%)
Market implied 78.2%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$211.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$352.99
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
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