Valero Energy (VLO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$408.46
20.85 (5.38%)
▲
5d:
+6.69%
30d:
+12.84%
90d:
+52.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$330.33
Based on -8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$205.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $408.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $358.83 to $398.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 453.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $419.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $360.32. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $419.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $360.32. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$358.83 -
$398.90
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading 11.8% above Wall St target ($360.32)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$358.83 -
$398.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$364.96
Resistance Level
$419.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.74
Wall Street Target
$360.32
(-11.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
453.5%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$379.05
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$351.76
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$326.43
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$410.41
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -20.1%)
$565.72
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -20.1%)
$297.77
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -20.1%)
$253.10
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.96
Bull Case
$676.93
(+66%)
Analyst growth 58.8%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$615.39
(+51%)
Market implied 58.8%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$263.58
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$513.55
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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