MPC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
PETROLEUM REFINING
MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$415.51
+12.67 (+3.15%)
▲
5d:
+10.12%
30d:
-14.31%
90d:
+16.91%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (93%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$407.64 – $472.24
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.6x
CHEAP
vs 11.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$466.94
+15.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$367.72 / $447.00
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 17.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
MPC is flagged by 2 backtest-validated scanners today
XLE Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 3.29% over the next 20 trading days; MPC has been on it 4 days), SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; MPC has been on it 4 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-12.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $432.51 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$600.04
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$372.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $415.51, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $407.64 to $472.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 489.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $367.71, while resistance sits at $447.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPC scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $466.94 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $367.71, while resistance sits at $447.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPC scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $466.94 (+15.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$407.64 -
$472.24
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$407.64 -
$472.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$367.72
Resistance Level
$447.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($466.94)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$466.94
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
489.6%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$362.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$326.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$293.67
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→12)
$523.86
(+30%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -10.8%)
$889.22
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: -10.8%)
$293.67
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: -10.8%)
$249.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $50.47
Bull Case
$521.46
(+29%)
Analyst growth 21.7%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$474.06
(+18%)
Market implied 21.7%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$264.89
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$718.60
(+78.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+78.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MPC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates beyond 4.25% due to expected inflation peak of 4.4% in February 2027. Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) mentioned in Zacks Investment Ideas article.
Key Retail Themes:
Inflation expectations
Interest rate hikes
Oil stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 12:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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