MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$248.52
1.23 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
-0.93%
30d:
+0.04%
90d:
+6.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
Get Alerted When MPC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.73
Based on -7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $248.52, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.35 to $263.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 350.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $241.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $241.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$248.35 -
$263.10
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($268.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$248.35 -
$263.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$241.36
Resistance Level
$272.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.23
Wall Street Target
$268.17
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
350.7%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$230.38
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$213.56
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$197.97
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$249.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -18.4%)
$385.65
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: -18.4%)
$181.17
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: -18.4%)
$154.00
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.18
Bull Case
$435.25
(+75%)
Analyst growth 60.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$395.68
(+59%)
Market implied 60.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$168.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$313.33
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1037 shares
2026-03-12
Ricky D Hessling
SELL
1810 shares
2026-03-11
Top Rated Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$262 | 56 HOLD |
|
PSX
Phillips 66 |
BUY
19 analysts |
$192 | 59 HOLD |
|
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels Corp |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$5 | 47 HOLD |
|
DINO
HF Sinclair Corp |
HOLD
16 analysts |
$75 | 58 HOLD |
|
SUN
Sunoco LP |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$74 | 54 HOLD |
Advanced MPC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPC price and gamma walls.
