Is MPC stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MPC is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MPC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MPC to be between $326.49 and $387.53. The current price is $395.93.

What is the analyst price target for MPC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MPC is $351.67. This implies a potential upside of -11.2% from current levels.

MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

PETROLEUM REFINING

$395.93

3.51 (0.89%) ▲

5d: +2.12%

30d: +13.69%

90d: +51.81%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MPC Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $373.32 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -36.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$165.07

Based on -16.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$102.49

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $395.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $326.49 to $387.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 348.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $363.15, while resistance sits at $409.11.

Market Sentiment: MPC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $351.67. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $326.49 - $387.53

Company Quality Score 31/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 19.0%

Protect Your Profits

MPC is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading 11.2% above Wall St target ($351.67)
WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $326.49 - $387.53

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $363.15

Resistance Level $409.11

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.66

Wall Street Target $351.67 (-11.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 53.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 348.0%

Profit Margin 5.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -2.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.7 vs 12.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -2.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $386.82 (-2%)

2-Year Target $377.93 (-5%)

3-Year Target $369.23 (-7%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→13) $395.81 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -36.0%) $499.26 (+26%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: -36.0%) $288.63 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 9.9, Growth: -36.0%) $245.34 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 13.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.33

Bull Case $517.36 (+31%)

Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 15.2

Base Case $470.32 (+19%)

Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 13.9

Bear Case $266.84 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 12.5

Stabilization Target: $424.43 (+7.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +7.2%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:26 AM

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