CVR ENERGY (CVI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$54.83
0.47 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
+6.42%
30d:
+27.75%
90d:
+89.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.25
37.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $54.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.21 to $53.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $34.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $34.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$43.21 -
$53.24
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.7%
Protect Your Profits
CVI is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 38.0% above Wall St target ($34.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.21 -
$53.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.86
(10.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.76
Resistance Level
$56.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.25
Wall Street Target
$34.00
(-38.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.06
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$45.70
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$41.73
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$54.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 140.4%)
$218.85
(+299%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 140.4%)
$185.05
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 140.4%)
$157.29
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.35
Bull Case
$66.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$54.83
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.5
Bear Case
$41.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$72.16
(+31.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVI price and gamma walls.
