CVR ENERGY (CVI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$49.66
1.06 (2.18%)
▲
5d:
+13.95%
30d:
+41.72%
90d:
+63.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: CVI is 12.8% above its trading range ($44.03). Market expects -9.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: CVI is 12.8% above its trading range ($44.03). Market expects -9.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.17
38.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $49.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.40 to $44.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.85, while resistance sits at $52.40.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $33.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.85, while resistance sits at $52.40.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $33.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.40 -
$44.03
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
9.5%
Protect Your Profits
CVI is technically overbought (RSI 83). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 32.7% above Wall St target ($33.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.40 -
$44.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.85
Resistance Level
$52.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.30
Wall Street Target
$33.40
(-32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.09
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$40.94
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$37.18
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$49.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 214.0%)
$195.39
(+294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 214.0%)
$167.60
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 214.0%)
$142.46
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.53
Bull Case
$59.96
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$49.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$37.99
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$66.30
(+33.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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