CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$32.89
-2.73 (-7.66%)
▼
5d:
-3.46%
30d:
+15.48%
90d:
-1.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.04
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.52
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $32.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.12 to $35.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $29.40. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $29.40. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.12 -
$35.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading 10.6% above Wall St target ($29.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.12 -
$35.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.61
Resistance Level
$39.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.75
Wall Street Target
$29.40
(-10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 23.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.77
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$26.94
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$24.38
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→24)
$32.82
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.01
Bull Case
$39.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$32.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$25.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$44.27
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carl C Icahn
BUY
275012 shares
2026-02-24
Carl C Icahn
BUY
244940 shares
2026-02-23
Carl C Icahn
BUY
263452 shares
2026-02-20
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