CVR ENERGY (CVI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$58.16
-0.47 (-0.80%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.31%
30d:
+13.37%
90d:
+70.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CVI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -16.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CVI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -16.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.19
52.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $58.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.81 to $60.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $48.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $48.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$51.81 -
$60.11
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.5% above Wall St target ($48.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.81 -
$60.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$5.55
(9.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.28
Resistance Level
$63.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.78
Wall Street Target
$48.00
(-17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$47.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$42.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â22)
$73.67
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.5%)
$187.50
(+222%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 27.5%)
$120.63
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 27.5%)
$102.53
(+76%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.45
Bull Case
$70.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$58.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.5
Bear Case
$44.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$101.05
(+73.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+73.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVI price and gamma walls.
