CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$39.51
3.68 (10.27%)
▲
5d:
+12.05%
30d:
+16.41%
90d:
+24.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.93
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $39.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.58 to $36.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVI scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $31.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.58 -
$36.36
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 20.5% above Wall St target ($31.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.58 -
$36.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.86
Resistance Level
$40.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.05
Wall Street Target
$31.40
(-20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 23.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.23
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$33.22
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$30.47
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$39.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 1778.7%)
$148.25
(+275%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 1778.7%)
$133.35
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 1778.7%)
$113.34
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.22
Bull Case
$47.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$39.51
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$30.23
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$51.22
(+29.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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