DECK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$96.04
-0.19 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
-9.81%
30d:
-9.14%
90d:
-10.83%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DECK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DECK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.48
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $96.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.88 to $108.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.80, while resistance sits at $110.78.
Market Sentiment: DECK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $127.81 (+33.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.80, while resistance sits at $110.78.
Market Sentiment: DECK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $127.81 (+33.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$100.88 -
$108.26
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($127.81)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.88 -
$108.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.80
Resistance Level
$110.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.01
Wall Street Target
$127.81
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.29
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$88.69
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$85.24
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$96.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$189.02
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$118.15
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$100.43
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.59
Bull Case
$118.59
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.0%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$107.81
(+12%)
Market implied 12.0%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$65.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$108.53
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 26, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Anne Spangenberg
SELL
4063 shares
2026-02-13
Robin Spring-Green
SELL
347 shares
2026-02-13
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