BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
Footwear, (No Rubber)
Birkenstock (BIRK): Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$35.70
-0.91 (-2.49%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.77%
30d:
+5.25%
90d:
-9.28%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 17, 2026
Protect BIRK Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$32.56 â $36.26
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.7x
FAIR
vs 16.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$50.22
+40.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$33.02 / $39.15
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BIRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.33
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.77
23.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $35.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.56 to $36.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.02, while resistance sits at $39.15.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.22 (+40.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.02, while resistance sits at $39.15.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.22 (+40.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$32.56 -
$36.26
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$32.56 -
$36.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$33.02
Resistance Level
$39.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($50.22)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.67
Wall Street Target
$50.22
(+40.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.52
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$33.38
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$32.28
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â16)
$35.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.1%)
$92.44
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 24.1%)
$68.29
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 24.1%)
$58.04
(+63%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$46.01
(+29%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$41.82
(+17%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$24.89
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$39.42
(+10.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BIRK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
One bullish trader on StockTwits expressed optimism about investing in $BIRK.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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