Birkenstock (BIRK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$32.57
-1.11 (-3.30%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.78%
30d:
+2.45%
90d:
-21.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BIRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BIRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.86
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.10
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $32.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.39 to $34.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.58, while resistance sits at $36.57. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.47 (+51.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.58, while resistance sits at $36.57. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.47 (+51.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.39 -
$34.02
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BIRK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.9% below Wall St target ($49.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.39 -
$34.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.58
Resistance Level
$36.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.40
Wall Street Target
$49.47
(+51.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 16.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.49
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$28.53
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$26.71
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â16)
$32.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$92.55
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 24.2%)
$62.46
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 24.2%)
$53.09
(+63%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$41.14
(+22%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$37.40
(+11%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$21.98
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.61
(+21.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BIRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BIRK price and gamma walls.
