Is BIRK stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, BIRK is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: BIRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of BIRK stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for BIRK to be between $38.68 and $44.31. The current price is $39.35.

What is the analyst price target for BIRK?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for BIRK is $53.84. This implies a potential upside of 36.8% from current levels.

BIRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc

Footwear, (No Rubber)

$39.35

-1.65 (-4.02%) ▼

5d: +2.34%

30d: -11.19%

90d: +15.29%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your BIRK Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 13, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $42.14 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BIRK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 23.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$76.83

Based on 13.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$47.71

17.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $39.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.68 to $44.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.92, while resistance sits at $43.90. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.

Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.84 (+36.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $38.68 - $44.31

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 85.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($53.84)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $38.68 - $44.31

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $35.93

Resistance Level $43.90

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.26

Wall Street Target $53.84 (+36.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -20.4%

Profit Margin 16.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.3 vs 17.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $38.76 (-2%)

2-Year Target $38.18 (-3%)

3-Year Target $37.61 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→17) $39.33 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.0%) $91.11 (+132%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 23.0%) $73.21 (+86%)

Bear: (PE: 13.8, Growth: 23.0%) $62.23 (+58%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.22

Bull Case $49.18 (+25%)

Analyst growth 9.0%, PE expands to 20.3

Base Case $44.70 (+14%)

Market implied 9.0%, PE stable at 18.5

Bear Case $27.88 (-29%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 17.0

Stabilization Target: $41.15 (+4.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.6%

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced BIRK Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BIRK price and gamma walls.

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More Analysis for BIRK

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Birkenstock Holding plc

Footwear, (No Rubber)

About

Birkenstock Holding PLC is a company that manufactures and sells footbed-based products, including sandals, closed-toe silhouettes, and other products, such as skincare and accessories, for everyday, leisure, and work. It sells its products through two main channels: business-to-business (B2B) which comprises sales made to established third-party store networks, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) which comprises sales made on globally owned online stores through the Birkenstock.com domain and sales made in Birkenstock retail stores. The company's reportable segments are based on its regional hubs and include: the Americas which is also its key revenue-generating segment; Europe; and Australia, Japan, India, China, and the United Arab Emirates (APMA).

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $8,500,137,908

Employees: 7,400

Listed Since: 2023-10-11

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001977102

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