Birkenstock (BIRK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$33.33
0.36 (1.09%)
â˛
5d:
-0.8%
30d:
-1.36%
90d:
-27.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BIRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BIRK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.36
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.04
30.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $33.33, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.06 to $34.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.34 (+51.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.34 (+51.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.06 -
$34.59
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.0% below Wall St target ($50.34)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.06 -
$34.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.44
Resistance Level
$33.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.70
Wall Street Target
$50.34
(+51.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.33
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$29.45
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$27.68
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â17)
$33.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.5%)
$95.77
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 24.5%)
$64.31
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 24.5%)
$54.66
(+64%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$42.42
(+27%)
Analyst growth 17.0%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$38.57
(+16%)
Market implied 17.0%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$22.42
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.14
(+20.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BIRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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