Birkenstock (BIRK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$31.13
0.44 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-8.31%
30d:
-15.27%
90d:
-32.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $34.91 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BIRK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BIRK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.40
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.44
34.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $31.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.36 to $38.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.98 (+67.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BIRK scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.98 (+67.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$33.36 -
$38.38
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BIRK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.0% below Wall St target ($51.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.36 -
$38.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.25
Resistance Level
$36.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.92
Wall Street Target
$51.98
(+67.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.0%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.55
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$26.18
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$24.00
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$31.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.5%)
$91.53
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$58.61
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 23.5%)
$49.82
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.07
Bull Case
$39.31
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$35.73
(+15%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$20.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$40.49
(+30.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 2:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BIRK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BIRK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BIRK price and gamma walls.
