Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$85.28
-0.21 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
+8.51%
90d:
-11.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DECK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DECK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.73
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $85.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.26 to $84.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $81.54, while resistance sits at $88.40.
Market Sentiment: DECK scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.48 (+35.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $81.54, while resistance sits at $88.40.
Market Sentiment: DECK scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.48 (+35.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$78.26 -
$84.46
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($115.48)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.26 -
$84.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.54
Resistance Level
$88.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.55
Wall Street Target
$115.48
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.25
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$75.51
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$71.06
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$85.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$180.39
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 7.2%)
$104.91
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$89.18
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.07
Bull Case
$98.20
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$89.28
(+5%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$58.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$102.63
(+20.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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