Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$81.27
1.39 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
-3.82%
30d:
-10.89%
90d:
-28.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $87.57 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DECK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DECK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.60
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.06
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $81.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.18 to $95.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DECK scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.81 (+51.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $79.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DECK scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.81 (+51.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$84.18 -
$95.74
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DECK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.1% below Wall St target ($122.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.18 -
$95.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.34
Resistance Level
$88.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.01
Wall Street Target
$122.81
(+51.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.52
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$68.34
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$62.67
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$81.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$183.20
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$99.98
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$84.98
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.00
Bull Case
$92.68
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$84.25
(+4%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$54.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$105.58
(+29.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
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Advanced DECK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DECK price and gamma walls.
