DECK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$105.99
1.73 (1.66%)
▲
5d:
+1.24%
30d:
-5.77%
90d:
-3.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
11d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DECK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DECK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.48
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $105.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.01 to $111.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.86 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.86 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$103.01 -
$111.06
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($126.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.01 -
$111.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.13
Resistance Level
$115.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.36
Wall Street Target
$126.86
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.14
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$104.30
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$103.47
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$105.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$197.83
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$130.39
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$110.83
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.16
Bull Case
$118.26
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.1%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$107.51
(+1%)
Market implied 3.1%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$70.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$108.53
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 11, 2026 4:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Anne Spangenberg
SELL
4063 shares
2026-02-13
Robin Spring-Green
SELL
347 shares
2026-02-13
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