DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp RUBBER & PLASTICS FOOTWEAR

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$88.38
-1.41 (-1.57%) ▼
5d: -0.82% 30d: +5.19% 90d: -5.27%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$81.43 – $87.51
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.0x CHEAP
vs 13.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$96.39
+9.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$80.80 / $91.70
Trend: Strong Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: DECK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.79
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.45
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $88.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.43 to $87.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $80.80, while resistance sits at $91.70.

Market Sentiment: DECK scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $81.43 - $87.51
Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 23.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $81.43 - $87.51
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $80.80
Resistance Level $91.70
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($96.39)
  • WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.97
Wall Street Target $96.39 (+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 27.0%
Profit Margin 19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical 12.0 vs 13.7 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $84.49 (-4%)
2-Year Target $80.77 (-9%)
3-Year Target $77.22 (-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→14) $88.38 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%) $180.39 (+104%)
Base: (SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 7.2%) $108.73 (+23%)
Bear: (PE: 10.2, Growth: 7.2%) $92.42 (+5%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.55
Bull Case $96.59 (+9%)
Analyst growth -2.2%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case $87.81 (-1%)
Market implied -2.2%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case $61.06 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 13.7
Stabilization Target: $101.15 (+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential: +14.4%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (DECK)

Bullish 4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: StockTwits messages reveal bullish sentiment towards $DECK based on strong earnings results in the latest quarter. No new news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes: Earnings Financial Performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Part A: Deep-Dive DECK Research Pages
DECK Technical Chart DECK Price Prediction DECK Intrinsic Value DCF DECK Earnings Date Why is DECK Moving Today? DECK Investment Advisor DECK Fair Price Analyzer DECK Options Chain DECK Options Advisor DECK Options Analysis DECK Competitors
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