NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$40.73
-0.50 (-1.21%)
▼
5d:
-2.33%
30d:
-8.62%
90d:
-3.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $41.70 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NKE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NKE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.41
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.17
20.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $40.73, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.47 to $43.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.2) compared to its historical average (25.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 428.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.66 (+24.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.66 (+24.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$41.47 -
$43.48
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($50.66)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.47 -
$43.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.45
Resistance Level
$43.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.25
Wall Street Target
$50.66
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
428.0%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 25.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.94
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$37.22
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$35.59
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$40.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$72.66
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$66.06
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$56.15
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$39.54
(-3%)
Analyst growth -12.8%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$35.94
(-12%)
Market implied -12.8%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$28.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 25.4
Stabilization Target:
$46.50
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 3:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Elliott Hill
BUY
23660 shares
2026-04-13
Timothy D Cook
BUY
25000 shares
2026-04-10
John W Rogers Jr
BUY
4000 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced NKE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NKE price and gamma walls.
