NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$40.76
0.55 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
+0.07%
30d:
-0.56%
90d:
-8.18%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $41.70 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.3% annual earnings decline despite 428% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.3% annual earnings decline despite 428% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.41
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.17
20.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $40.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.74 to $43.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (25.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 428.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.86, while resistance sits at $42.23.
Market Sentiment: NKE scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.66 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.86, while resistance sits at $42.23.
Market Sentiment: NKE scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.66 (+24.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$40.74 -
$43.18
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($50.66)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.74 -
$43.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.86
Resistance Level
$42.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.26
Wall Street Target
$50.66
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
428.0%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 25.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$37.33
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$35.72
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$40.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.3%)
$72.71
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 21.3%)
$65.54
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 21.3%)
$55.71
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$39.31
(-4%)
Analyst growth -11.1%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$35.73
(-12%)
Market implied -11.1%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$27.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 25.4
Stabilization Target:
$46.50
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Elliott Hill
BUY
23660 shares
2026-04-13
Timothy D Cook
BUY
25000 shares
2026-04-10
John W Rogers Jr
BUY
4000 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced NKE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NKE price and gamma walls.
