Nike (NKE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$38.32
0.79 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
+3.18%
30d:
+6.3%
90d:
-8.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 01, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NKE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.11
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.74
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $38.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.79 to $37.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NKE scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NKE scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.79 -
$37.01
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NKE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($36.51)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.79 -
$37.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.45
Resistance Level
$38.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.93
Wall Street Target
$36.51
(-4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.44
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.66
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$32.96
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$38.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$68.36
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$64.86
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$55.13
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$36.34
(-5%)
Analyst growth -12.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$33.03
(-14%)
Market implied -12.0%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$25.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$44.49
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NKE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NKE price and gamma walls.
