DEO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DEO - Diageo plc
$92.68
-0.99 (-1.06%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.25%
30d:
+3.95%
90d:
+9.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: DEO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: DEO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.00
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DEO is currently trading at $92.68, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.18 to $95.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.9) compared to its historical average (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.43 (+13.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DEO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DEO scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.43 (+13.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$86.18 -
$95.06
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($106.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.18 -
$95.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.36
Resistance Level
$96.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$106.43
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.60
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$101.70
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$105.98
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â13)
PE COMPRESSION
$93.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -3.0%)
$115.05
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$85.37
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$72.56
(-23%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.07
Bull Case
$208.45
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$189.50
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$64.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 27, 2026 11:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DEO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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