FICO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FICO - Fair Isaac Corporation
$1179.19
-6.18 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+3.68%
30d:
+10.76%
90d:
+4.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FICO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.1% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FICO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.1% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2644.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1642.20
28.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FICO is currently trading at $1179.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1112.70 to $1251.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1124.46, while resistance sits at $1323.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1527.50 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FICO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1124.46, while resistance sits at $1323.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1527.50 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1112.70 -
$1251.99
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($1527.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1112.70 -
$1251.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$93.03
(7.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1124.46
Resistance Level
$1323.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.71
Wall Street Target
$1527.50
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.0%
Profit Margin
33.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1095.47
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$1017.69
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$945.43
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→27)
$1180.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 26.2%)
$2392.85
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 26.2%)
$2369.48
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.2%)
$2014.06
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.48
Bull Case
$2250.18
(+91%)
Analyst growth 72.6%, PE expands to 41.4
Base Case
$2045.61
(+74%)
Market implied 72.6%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$806.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$1472.22
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 8:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FICO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Eva Manolis
SELL
520 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced FICO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FICO price and gamma walls.
