FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$73.97
-0.16 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
+1.66%
30d:
+30.54%
90d:
+44.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FRPT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FRPT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $73.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.91 to $70.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.7) is in line with its historical norms (36.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.25 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.25 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$56.91 -
$70.62
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
FRPT is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($84.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.91 -
$70.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.20
Resistance Level
$75.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.71
Wall Street Target
$84.25
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
37.7 vs 36.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.07
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$76.20
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$77.34
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→36)
PE COMPRESSION
$74.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.7, Growth: 25.7%)
$146.84
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$78.15
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$66.43
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.82
Bull Case
$41.87
(-43%)
Analyst growth -48.7%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$38.06
(-49%)
Market implied -48.7%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$50.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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