FTAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$206.22
-3.66 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
-9.37%
30d:
-14.55%
90d:
-21.14%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$586.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$364.20
43.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $206.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.13 to $268.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (26.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $350.60 (+70.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $350.60 (+70.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$229.13 -
$268.73
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FTAI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 70.0% below Wall St target ($350.60)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.13 -
$268.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$221.53
Resistance Level
$264.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.12
Wall Street Target
$350.60
(+70.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 26.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$185.60
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$167.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$150.33
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→27)
$235.38
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 63.4%)
$885.62
(+330%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 63.4%)
$695.99
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 63.4%)
$591.59
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.03
Bull Case
$500.17
(+143%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.7
Base Case
$454.70
(+121%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.2
Bear Case
$154.60
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 26.8
Stabilization Target:
$322.89
(+56.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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