FTAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$225.15
19.15 (9.30%)
▲
5d:
+5.14%
30d:
-9.24%
90d:
-6.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FTAI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FTAI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$605.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$376.23
40.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $225.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $202.47 to $247.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (25.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $231.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: FTAI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $376.50 (+67.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $231.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: FTAI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $376.50 (+67.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$202.47 -
$247.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 67.2% below Wall St target ($376.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$202.47 -
$247.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$179.11
Resistance Level
$231.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.09
Wall Street Target
$376.50
(+67.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.0%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 25.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$202.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$182.37
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$164.13
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→26)
$234.99
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 110.6%)
$870.77
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 110.6%)
$759.88
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 110.6%)
$645.90
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.57
Bull Case
$453.20
(+101%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.6
Base Case
$412.00
(+83%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.1
Bear Case
$140.08
(-38%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 25.9
Stabilization Target:
$322.35
(+43.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 9:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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