TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1141.74
12.36 (1.09%)
▲
5d:
+0.66%
30d:
+3.3%
90d:
-7.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TDG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TDG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2029.50
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1260.16
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1141.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1088.70 to $1127.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.5) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1158.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1414.30 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1158.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1414.30 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1088.70 -
$1127.04
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
54th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TDG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 54th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($1414.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1088.70 -
$1127.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$58.27
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1085.00
Resistance Level
$1158.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.48
Wall Street Target
$1414.30
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1088.08
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$1036.94
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$988.20
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→27)
$1140.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$1867.17
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$1579.41
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$1342.50
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.97
Bull Case
$1832.36
(+61%)
Analyst growth 47.5%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$1665.78
(+46%)
Market implied 47.5%, PE stable at 34.3
Bear Case
$767.98
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.5 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$1317.85
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TDG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TDG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TDG price and gamma walls.
