Is TDG stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TDG is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: TDG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TDG stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TDG to be between $1091.21 and $1169.26. The current price is $1090.38.

What is the analyst price target for TDG?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TDG is $1484.37. This implies a potential upside of 36.1% from current levels.

TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated

AIRCRAFT PARTS & AUXILIARY EQUIPMENT, NEC

$1090.38

-6.86 (-0.63%) ▼

5d: -2.31%

30d: -5.49%

90d: -19.0%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 11, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TDG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1994.63

Based on 10.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1238.51

12.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1090.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1091.21 to $1169.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (27.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1077.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TDG scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1484.37 (+36.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $1091.21 - $1169.26

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 92.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 36.1% below Wall St target ($1484.37)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1091.21 - $1169.26

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$49.29 (4.5%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1077.83

Resistance Level $1127.68

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.57

Wall Street Target $1484.37 (+36.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 10.9%

Profit Margin 21.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 22.6 vs 27.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1021.69 (-6%)

2-Year Target $957.32 (-12%)

3-Year Target $897.01 (-18%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→27) $1089.18 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.6, Growth: 17.3%) $1759.22 (+61%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.3%) $1590.38 (+46%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 17.3%) $1351.82 (+24%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 32.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $33.47

Bull Case $1742.48 (+60%)

Analyst growth 44.4%, PE expands to 36.1

Base Case $1584.07 (+45%)

Market implied 44.4%, PE stable at 32.8

Bear Case $746.12 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 27.4

Stabilization Target: $1323.98 (+21.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +21.4%

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

W Nicholas Howley SELL 10132 shares 2026-04-20

Joel Reiss SELL 3900 shares 2026-04-15

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