FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$154.37
-3.13 (-1.99%)
▼
5d:
-6.14%
30d:
-11.55%
90d:
-27.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 23, 2026 at $154.37 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$607.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$377.08
59.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $154.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $161.50 to $183.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $146.48, while resistance sits at $172.28.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $346.45 (+124.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $146.48, while resistance sits at $172.28.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $346.45 (+124.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$161.50 -
$183.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 124.4% below Wall St target ($346.45)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$161.50 -
$183.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.48
Resistance Level
$172.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.43
Wall Street Target
$346.45
(+124.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.0%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.93
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$125.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$112.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→23)
$227.34
(+47%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 130.4%)
$904.87
(+486%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 130.4%)
$521.00
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 130.4%)
$442.85
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.60
Bull Case
$346.50
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.7
Base Case
$315.00
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$107.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$311.85
(+102.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+102.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 26, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FTAI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FTAI price and gamma walls.