FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Common Stock
$164.70
-2.33 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
-1.44%
30d:
-17.4%
90d:
-27.62%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FTAI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$584.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$363.03
54.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTAI is currently trading at $164.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.53 to $196.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.10 (+121.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTAI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $162.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FTAI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.10 (+121.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$174.53 -
$196.98
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FTAI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 121.1% below Wall St target ($364.10)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 28% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.53 -
$196.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.35
Resistance Level
$194.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.06
Wall Street Target
$364.10
(+121.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
40.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.0%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 23.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$133.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$120.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→24)
$218.87
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 116.4%)
$838.74
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 116.4%)
$555.86
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 116.4%)
$472.48
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.57
Bull Case
$367.47
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$334.06
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$113.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$300.24
(+82.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+82.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTAI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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