Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$229.61
1.70 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-11.85%
30d:
-18.47%
90d:
-13.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $244.95 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HWM is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HWM is down 11.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$282.82
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$175.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $229.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.86 to $288.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.8) compared to its historical average (45.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $226.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $337.13 (+46.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $226.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $337.13 (+46.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$248.86 -
$288.40
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HWM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.8% below Wall St target ($337.13)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$248.86 -
$288.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$226.30
Resistance Level
$268.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.77
Wall Street Target
$337.13
(+46.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.0%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.8 vs 45.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$212.62
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$196.89
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$182.32
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→45)
$229.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.8, Growth: 20.3%)
$400.24
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.3%)
$225.68
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 20.3%)
$191.82
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.63 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.27
Bull Case
$277.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.5
Base Case
$229.61
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.6
Bear Case
$175.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.8 to 45.1
Stabilization Target:
$289.49
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HWM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HWM price and gamma walls.
