HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
ROLLING DRAWING & EXTRUDING OF NONFERROUS METALS
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$224.00
+4.95 (+2.26%)
â˛
5d:
+4.89%
30d:
+3.3%
90d:
-20.8%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
Protect HWM Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$200.27 â $224.66
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
33.7x
CHEAP
vs 43.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$296.29
+32.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$195.46 / $225.71
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HWM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $218.04 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$296.04
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$183.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $224.00, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $200.27 to $224.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.7) compared to its historical average (43.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $296.29 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $225.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HWM scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $296.29 (+32.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$200.27 -
$224.66
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$200.27 -
$224.66
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$195.46
Resistance Level
$225.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($296.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.70
Wall Street Target
$296.29
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.5%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.7 vs 43.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.53
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$190.42
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$175.57
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34â43)
$224.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.7, Growth: 20.8%)
$394.87
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$232.70
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 20.8%)
$197.80
(-12%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.10
Bull Case
$314.04
(+40%)
Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$285.49
(+27%)
Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 43.0
Bear Case
$148.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.7 to 43.0
Stabilization Target:
$285.81
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HWM)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest news highlights ATI's strong performance in the aerospace and defense sector, with the stock up 53.2% YTD. The article discusses the company's capacity expansion, consistent demand growth, and favorable outlook.
Key Retail Themes:
Company's strong performance in aerospace and defense sector
Capacity expansion and consistent demand growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
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