HWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HWM - Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$271.28
0.43 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-2.39%
30d:
+8.73%
90d:
+7.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HWM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$261.11
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$162.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HWM is currently trading at $271.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $258.77 to $278.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.9) is in line with its historical norms (45.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $264.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.88 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HWM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $264.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $307.88 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$258.77 -
$278.32
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($307.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$258.77 -
$278.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$264.10
Resistance Level
$280.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.90
Wall Street Target
$307.88
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
44.9 vs 45.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$270.19
(0%)
2-Year Target
$269.11
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$268.04
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→45)
$271.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.9, Growth: 19.4%)
$461.49
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$223.87
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.4%)
$190.29
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 62.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.31
Bull Case
$417.68
(+54%)
Analyst growth 40.2%, PE expands to 69.1
Base Case
$379.71
(+40%)
Market implied 40.2%, PE stable at 62.8
Bear Case
$184.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 53.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 44.9 to 45.4
Stabilization Target:
$274.32
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Barbara Lou Shultz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-26
Neil Edward Marchuk
SELL
45150 shares
2026-02-18
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