GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$36.01
1.01 (2.89%)
▲
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
+0.14%
90d:
-11.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.44
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $36.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.58 to $36.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.3) compared to its historical average (34.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.41 (+41.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.41 (+41.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.58 -
$36.52
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.2% below Wall St target ($49.41)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.58 -
$36.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.33
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.26
Wall Street Target
$49.41
(+41.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 34.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.80
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$30.73
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$28.79
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→34)
$35.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 33.9%)
$84.06
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.9%)
$64.79
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 33.9%)
$55.07
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 44.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.79
Bull Case
$42.26
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 46.5
Base Case
$35.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$26.78
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 39.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.3 to 34.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.60
(+21.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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