Is GFL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, GFL is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of GFL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for GFL to be between $40.98 and $42.55. The current price is $42.85.

What is the analyst price target for GFL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for GFL is $52.22. This implies a potential upside of 21.9% from current levels.

GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares

Refuse Systems

$42.85

1.22 (2.93%) ▲

5d: -1.45%

30d: +4.84%

90d: +19.46%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your GFL Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $41.82 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$71.31

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$44.28

3.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $42.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.98 to $42.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.2) compared to its historical average (33.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: GFL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.22 (+21.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $40.98 - $42.55

Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($52.22)
WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $40.98 - $42.55

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $40.65

Resistance Level $44.00

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 29.25

Wall Street Target $52.22 (+21.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 22.2%

Profit Margin -2.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 29.3 vs 33.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $40.92 (-5%)

2-Year Target $39.08 (-9%)

3-Year Target $37.32 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 29→34) $42.87 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 29.3, Growth: 69.2%) $144.62 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 69.2%) $99.71 (+133%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 69.2%) $84.76 (+98%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.3 to 33.6

Stabilization Target: $49.22 (+14.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.9%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM

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GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares

Refuse Systems

About

GFL Environmental Inc is an environmental services company. Its offerings include non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure, soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its solid waste management business line, which generates the majority of the revenue, consists of the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste. Its Environmental Services business line includes liquid waste and soil remediation. The company's geographical segments are Canada and the United States. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the United States.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $16,942,769,376

Employees: 15,000

Listed Since: 2020-03-03

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001780232

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