GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$39.16
-0.59 (-1.48%)
▼
5d:
-3.28%
30d:
+7.02%
90d:
-9.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
Get Alerted When GFL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.23
0.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $39.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.24 to $39.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.6) is in line with its historical norms (34.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.11 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.11 (+23.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.24 -
$39.11
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($49.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.24 -
$39.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.33
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.63
Wall Street Target
$49.11
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.6 vs 34.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$37.09
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$35.83
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→34)
$39.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.6, Growth: 38.3%)
$105.17
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.3%)
$74.79
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 38.3%)
$63.57
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 52.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.76
Bull Case
$48.00
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$39.75
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 52.4
Bear Case
$30.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.6 to 34.0
Stabilization Target:
$44.13
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Waste Management Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Waste Management by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WCN
Waste Connections Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$204 | 60 HOLD |
|
RSG
Republic Services Inc |
BUY
24 analysts |
$244 | 61 BUY |
|
WM
Waste Management Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$256 | 62 BUY |
|
CLH
Clean Harbors Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$326 | 62 BUY |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$111 | 61 BUY |
Advanced GFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GFL price and gamma walls.
