GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$41.32
-0.05 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
+4.13%
30d:
+10.42%
90d:
+3.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $41.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.25 to $40.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.7) is in line with its historical norms (33.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.24, while resistance sits at $43.03.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.61 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $38.24, while resistance sits at $43.03.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.61 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.25 -
$40.46
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.5% below Wall St target ($50.61)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.25 -
$40.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.24
Resistance Level
$43.04
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.74
Wall Street Target
$50.61
(+22.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.7 vs 33.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.12
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$38.96
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$37.83
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→34)
$41.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.7, Growth: 46.2%)
$129.20
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 46.2%)
$87.14
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 46.2%)
$74.07
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (57x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 56.82 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.73
Bull Case
$49.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 59.7
Base Case
$41.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 56.8
Bear Case
$31.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 51.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.7 to 33.6
Stabilization Target:
$45.17
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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