Waste Connections (WCN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WCN - Waste Connections, Inc.
$151.84
1.18 (0.78%)
▲
5d:
-2.39%
30d:
-7.47%
90d:
-9.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WCN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WCN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.41
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WCN is currently trading at $151.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.17 to $165.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.3) compared to its historical average (27.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $202.04 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $202.04 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$155.17 -
$165.13
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($202.04)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$155.17 -
$165.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.39
Resistance Level
$157.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.27
Wall Street Target
$202.04
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 27.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.09
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$139.72
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$134.55
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$150.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 10.0%)
$200.35
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.0%)
$168.36
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 10.0%)
$143.11
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$253.84
(+69%)
Analyst growth 49.9%, PE expands to 40.9
Base Case
$230.76
(+53%)
Market implied 49.9%, PE stable at 37.2
Bear Case
$104.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.3 to 27.2
Stabilization Target:
$168.81
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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