Waste Connections (WCN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WCN - Waste Connections, Inc.
$159.74
0.30 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
-4.24%
30d:
-3.39%
90d:
+2.75%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WCN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WCN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.46
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WCN is currently trading at $159.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $163.12 to $167.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.7) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $158.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.60 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $158.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $200.60 (+25.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$163.12 -
$167.88
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($200.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$163.12 -
$167.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.85
Resistance Level
$167.24
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.73
Wall Street Target
$200.60
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$153.41
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$150.35
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$159.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 10.0%)
$212.34
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.0%)
$166.44
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.0%)
$141.48
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$262.99
(+65%)
Analyst growth 50.0%, PE expands to 42.4
Base Case
$239.08
(+50%)
Market implied 50.0%, PE stable at 38.5
Bear Case
$108.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.7 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$169.48
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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