Waste Connections (WCN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WCN - Waste Connections, Inc.
$186.09
17.81 (10.58%)
▲
5d:
+12.43%
30d:
+19.74%
90d:
+9.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: WCN is 12.5% above its trading range ($165.45). Market expects 0.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: WCN is 12.5% above its trading range ($165.45). Market expects 0.0% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.34
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WCN is currently trading at $186.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.33 to $165.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.1) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $186.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $196.72 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $186.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: WCN scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $196.72 (+16.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$151.33 -
$165.45
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($196.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.33 -
$165.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.33
Resistance Level
$186.36
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.12
Wall Street Target
$196.72
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
PE vs Historical
27.1 vs 27.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$168.28
(0%)
2-Year Target
$168.28
(0%)
3-Year Target
$168.28
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$168.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.1, Growth: 9.8%)
$222.92
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.8%)
$163.23
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.8%)
$138.75
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$279.39
(+66%)
Analyst growth 49.9%, PE expands to 45.0
Base Case
$253.99
(+51%)
Market implied 49.9%, PE stable at 40.9
Bear Case
$115.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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