Graphic Packaging (GPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$9.50
0.11 (1.17%)
▲
5d:
-11.21%
30d:
-18.73%
90d:
-10.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GPK is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GPK is down 11.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.76
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $9.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.43 to $11.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.58 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.58 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.43 -
$11.96
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($12.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.43 -
$11.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.30
Resistance Level
$11.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.50
Wall Street Target
$12.58
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.5%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.44
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.39
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$9.33
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$9.55
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 56.8%)
$76.09
(+701%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 56.8%)
$32.06
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 56.8%)
$27.25
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$18.04
(+90%)
Analyst growth 74.7%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$16.40
(+73%)
Market implied 74.7%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$6.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.72
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 12:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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