GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$10.81
0.05 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
-0.09%
30d:
+13.08%
90d:
-3.4%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.62
7.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $10.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.64 to $10.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (8.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $11.61.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $11.61.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$9.64 -
$10.89
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.1% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.64 -
$10.89
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.31
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.23
Wall Street Target
$11.79
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$11.71
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$12.19
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 38.2%)
$67.70
(+526%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 38.2%)
$28.51
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 38.2%)
$24.23
(+124%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$15.16
(+32%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$13.78
(+20%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$7.36
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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