GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$10.23
0.11 (1.09%)
▲
5d:
-6.75%
30d:
+1.89%
90d:
+10.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.76
13.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $10.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.01 to $11.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.79 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.79 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.01 -
$11.02
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.01 -
$11.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.15
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$11.79
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-48.0%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.41
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.60
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.79
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.2%)
$67.29
(+558%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 38.2%)
$26.98
(+164%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 38.2%)
$22.93
(+124%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$14.18
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$12.89
(+26%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$6.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Robbert Rietbroek
BUY
44278 shares
2026-03-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-09
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