Graphic Packaging (GPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$8.75
-0.29 (-3.21%)
▼
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
-6.32%
90d:
-21.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.12
13.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $8.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.47 to $9.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.15, while resistance sits at $9.05. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.95 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.15, while resistance sits at $9.05. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.95 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.44
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($10.95)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with -0.7% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.47 -
$9.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.15
Resistance Level
$9.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.29
Wall Street Target
$10.95
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.5%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.27
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$9.50
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$9.74
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 45.4%)
$59.37
(+557%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 45.4%)
$27.77
(+207%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 45.4%)
$23.60
(+161%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$13.61
(+51%)
Analyst growth 47.5%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$12.37
(+37%)
Market implied 47.5%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$5.71
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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