GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES
Graphic Packaging (GPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$10.96
-0.12 (-1.04%)
▼
5d:
-5.07%
30d:
+30.73%
90d:
-3.9%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
32/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$8.15 – $10.54
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.6x
STRETCHED
vs 8.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.10
+9.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.68 / $12.14
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $10.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.15 to $10.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.68, while resistance sits at $12.14.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.68, while resistance sits at $12.14.
Market Sentiment: GPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.15 -
$10.54
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.15 -
$10.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$8.68
Resistance Level
$12.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.10)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.9% growth with 0.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$12.10
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-85.4%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 8.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.17
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$13.37
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$14.69
(+33%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 42.7%)
$55.22
(+399%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 42.7%)
$32.18
(+191%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 42.7%)
$24.19
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.25
Bull Case
$24.51
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.0
Base Case
$22.28
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.6
Bear Case
$7.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GPK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) reported Q3 2026 earnings with margin expansion and cost reduction efforts, but net income and adjusted EBITDA decreased. The company also provided a full-year 2026 outlook.
Key Retail Themes:
Margin expansion and cost reduction efforts
Strategic cooperation agreement between SCAG and China Huaye Group
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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