SW
Smurfit Westrock plc
PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES
Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$44.36
+0.17 (+0.38%)
▲
5d:
+2.16%
30d:
+8.01%
90d:
-9.93%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
0d
Protect SW Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (54%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$41.04 – $43.59
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.8x
FAIR
vs 13.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$53.85
+21.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$39.09 / $46.21
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: SW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.02
13.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SW is currently trading at $44.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.04 to $43.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.09, while resistance sits at $46.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.85 (+21.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SW is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.09, while resistance sits at $46.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.85 (+21.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$41.04 -
$43.59
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$41.04 -
$43.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$39.09
Resistance Level
$46.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding SW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($53.85)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 2.0% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.77
Wall Street Target
$53.85
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.6%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 13.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.11
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$45.88
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$46.66
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.39
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 123.0%)
$215.91
(+387%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 123.0%)
$149.72
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 123.0%)
$127.26
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case
$97.22
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 54.0
Base Case
$88.38
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.1
Bear Case
$30.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SW)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on SW are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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