Is SW stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SW is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SW stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SW to be between $45.11 and $49.47. The current price is $43.22.

What is the analyst price target for SW?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SW is $56.84. This implies a potential upside of 31.5% from current levels.

Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SW - Smurfit Westrock plc

PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES

$43.22

1.01 (2.39%) ▲

5d: -4.51%

30d: -12.24%

90d: +1.24%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SW Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $46.90 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$87.61

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$54.40

20.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SW is currently trading at $43.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.11 to $49.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SW is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.70, while resistance sits at $49.43.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.84 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $45.11 - $49.47

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($56.84)
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $45.11 - $49.47

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $41.70

Resistance Level $49.43

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.68

Wall Street Target $56.84 (+31.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -83.6%

Profit Margin 1.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 12.7 vs 13.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $42.66 (-1%)

2-Year Target $42.10 (-3%)

3-Year Target $41.56 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→13) $43.26 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 82.4%) $232.01 (+437%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 82.4%) $145.87 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 10.8, Growth: 82.4%) $123.99 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 44.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94

Bull Case $92.86 (+115%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.4

Base Case $84.42 (+95%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.9

Bear Case $28.70 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 13.2

Stabilization Target: $44.99 (+4.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.1%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM

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