GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$123.74
0.77 (0.63%)
â˛
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-2.34%
90d:
-3.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GVA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GVA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.67
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.16
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $123.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.14 to $126.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $122.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.67 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $122.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.67 (+38.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$121.14 -
$126.83
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GVA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.7% below Wall St target ($171.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.14 -
$126.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$6.21
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.22
Resistance Level
$129.46
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.49
Wall Street Target
$171.67
(+38.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
-3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.31
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$111.21
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$105.42
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â18)
$123.88
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.9%)
$230.47
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 12.9%)
$177.86
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 12.9%)
$151.19
(+22%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$145.40
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
26651 shares
2026-03-27
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SELL
7314 shares
2026-03-19
Staci M Woolsey
SELL
1523 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced GVA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GVA price and gamma walls.
