GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$150.08
-1.42 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
+6.17%
30d:
+17.59%
90d:
+25.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.78
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $150.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.14 to $144.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $144.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.20 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $144.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GVA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.20 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$133.14 -
$144.36
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($167.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.14 -
$144.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$133.64
Resistance Level
$144.11
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.81
Wall Street Target
$167.20
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.38
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$156.76
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$160.20
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.39
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$241.42
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$219.63
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$186.69
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$322.67
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$293.34
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$99.74
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
26651 shares
2026-03-27
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
7314 shares
2026-03-19
Staci M Woolsey
SELL
1523 shares
2026-03-19
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