GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$139.03
2.28 (1.67%)
▲
5d:
+3.25%
30d:
+1.08%
90d:
+4.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.78
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $139.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.33 to $141.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $140.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.20 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $140.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $167.20 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$128.33 -
$141.40
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($167.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.33 -
$141.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.28
Resistance Level
$140.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.36
Wall Street Target
$167.20
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$137.92
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$137.37
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$139.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 13.5%)
$242.86
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$203.46
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 13.5%)
$172.94
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$293.56
(+114%)
Analyst growth 99.9%, PE expands to 40.1
Base Case
$266.87
(+94%)
Market implied 99.9%, PE stable at 36.5
Bear Case
$90.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$140.88
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
26651 shares
2026-03-27
Kyle T Larkin
SELL
7314 shares
2026-03-19
Staci M Woolsey
SELL
1523 shares
2026-03-19
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