IMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IMO - Imperial Oil Limited
$138.05
1.19 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
+3.58%
30d:
+7.16%
90d:
+3.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: IMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.74
Based on -7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IMO is currently trading at $138.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.71 to $133.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 143.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $138.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $110.43. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $138.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $110.43. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$123.71 -
$133.27
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 20.0% above Wall St target ($110.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.71 -
$133.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.29
Resistance Level
$138.43
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$110.43
(-20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.0%
Profit Margin
8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.80
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$127.76
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$122.90
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$138.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -18.5%)
$173.61
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -18.5%)
$100.64
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -18.5%)
$85.54
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$288.13
(+109%)
Analyst growth 91.4%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$261.94
(+90%)
Market implied 91.4%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$93.06
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$155.45
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 12:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:16 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is IMO showing a specific setup today?
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