Imperial Oil (IMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$126.70
+3.42 (+2.77%)
▲
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
-1.73%
90d:
-4.27%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
59/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$123.94 – $134.06
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.4x
CHEAP
vs 12.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$111.94
-11.7% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$120.26 / $138.52
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: IMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.69
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IMO is currently trading at $126.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.94 to $134.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 377.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $120.26, while resistance sits at $138.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $111.94. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $120.26, while resistance sits at $138.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $111.94. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$123.94 -
$134.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$123.94 -
$134.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$120.26
Resistance Level
$138.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.7% above Wall St target ($111.94)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.37
Wall Street Target
$111.94
(-11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
377.6%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.03
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$102.63
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$92.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$136.76
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.7%)
$228.37
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -8.7%)
$96.30
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -8.7%)
$81.85
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.08
Bull Case
$225.95
(+78%)
Analyst growth 66.6%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$205.41
(+62%)
Market implied 66.6%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$83.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$187.60
(+48.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (IMO)
Neutral
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) reached a production milestone at its Kearl oil sands operation, raising questions about the company's valuation and future cash flows.
Key Retail Themes:
Imperial Oil's Kearl oil sands operation reached one billion barrels of cumulative production.
Analysts have a consensus price target of CA$157.12 for Imperial Oil, with disagreement on the price range.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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