Imperial Oil (IMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IMO - Imperial Oil Limited
$123.14
-1.39 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
+0.22%
30d:
-7.72%
90d:
+9.13%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: IMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.77
Based on -5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IMO is currently trading at $123.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.81 to $133.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 143.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $120.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $106.73. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $120.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $106.73. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$124.81 -
$133.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.3% above Wall St target ($106.73)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.81 -
$133.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.28
Resistance Level
$130.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.96
Wall Street Target
$106.73
(-14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.0%
Profit Margin
8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 12.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.57
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$105.40
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$96.97
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$124.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -15.4%)
$185.95
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: -15.4%)
$90.78
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: -15.4%)
$77.17
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.10
Bull Case
$270.71
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$246.10
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$83.67
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$160.05
(+28.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IMO showing a specific setup today?
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