Imperial Oil (IMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IMO - Imperial Oil Limited
$129.99
-0.82 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
-1.48%
30d:
-0.36%
90d:
+7.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IMO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: IMO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.85
Based on -9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IMO is currently trading at $129.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.29 to $135.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 143.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $127.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $109.83. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $127.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: IMO scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $109.83. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$128.29 -
$135.05
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.5% above Wall St target ($109.83)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.29 -
$135.05
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.87
Resistance Level
$135.10
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.60
Wall Street Target
$109.83
(-15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
143.0%
Profit Margin
8.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.31
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$120.80
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$116.45
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$129.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -22.8%)
$164.78
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -22.8%)
$94.76
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -22.8%)
$80.55
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.16
Bull Case
$261.78
(+101%)
Analyst growth 81.9%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$237.98
(+83%)
Market implied 81.9%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$88.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$144.57
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
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Is IMO showing a specific setup today?
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