KTOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
$57.17
0.99 (1.76%)
▲
5d:
-11.47%
30d:
+15.64%
90d:
+4.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KTOS is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KTOS is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KTOS is currently trading at $57.17, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.65 to $60.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.2) compared to its historical average (79.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.25, while resistance sits at $67.10.
Market Sentiment: KTOS scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.62 (+84.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KTOS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.25, while resistance sits at $67.10.
Market Sentiment: KTOS scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.62 (+84.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.65 -
$60.32
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KTOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.7% below Wall St target ($105.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.65 -
$60.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.25
Resistance Level
$67.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.16
Wall Street Target
$105.62
(+84.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.2 vs 79.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.45
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$46.31
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$41.68
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 51→80)
$64.84
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.2, Growth: 36.7%)
$145.99
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 36.7%)
$57.27
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 36.7%)
$48.68
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (93x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (51x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 93.46 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.61
Bull Case
$69.03
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 98.1
Base Case
$57.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 93.5
Bear Case
$43.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 84.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.2 to 79.6
Stabilization Target:
$88.95
(+55.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KTOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scot B Jarvis
SELL
5417 shares
2026-04-16
Marie Mendoza
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-15
Phillip D Carrai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-04-15
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Advanced KTOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KTOS price and gamma walls.
